CPI Card Group, Inc. (PMTS)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.24-1.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PMTS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PMTS — Principal Accounting Officer transition
Dated 2026-08-26
Chief Accounting Officer — Donna Abbey Carmignani: The filing discloses the departure of the sitting Chief Accounting Officer, Donna Abbey Carmignani, and the simultaneous appointment of a named successor, Brennan Hughes, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: The financial sector is easing. A drop below median growth could signal broader issues.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: This growth shows strong operations and makes more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is at least 3% year over year.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue growth aligns with management's target for 2026. It shows ongoing demand for CPI's solutions.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth of at least 7% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A stable leadership team is crucial for investor confidence. It can impact the company's strategy.
Supportive ifThe market reacted positively. The stock price went up after the CFO announcement.
Worry ifThe market reacted negatively. The stock price went down after the CFO announcement.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $502 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,797 loss on $10,000 · 38.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Successful integration of TRISM is key for expanding market reach. It can enhance revenue growth.
Supportive ifManagement shares good news about TRISM. It helps improve service offerings.
Worry ifIntegration problems arise that slow TRISM's impact on revenue.
Why it matters: If these acquisitions work well, they can boost revenue and market share.
Supportive ifManagement says Arroweye and TRISM will add significant revenue in the next quarters.
Worry ifIntegration issues lead to lower revenue from Arroweye and TRISM than expected.
Why it matters: Reaching the top of the Free Cash Flow range shows strong efficiency and cash flow.
Supportive ifCPI reports Free Cash Flow of $50 million or more for 2026.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow falls below $45 million for 2026.
Why it matters: A low leverage ratio shows financial health and the ability to invest in growth.
Supportive ifCPI reports a Net Leverage Ratio below 3.0x.
Worry ifNet Leverage Ratio rises above 3.0x.