CPI Card Group, Inc. (PMTS)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.24+14.38%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PMTS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PMTS — debt issuance
Dated 2026-09-14
Other Events. On September 10, 2026, CPI Card Group Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) by and among the Company, Tricor Pacific Capital Partners (Fund IV), Limited Partnership and Tricor Pacific Capital Partners (Fund IV) US, Limited Partnership (the “Selling Stockholders”) and B. Riley Securities, Inc., as representative of the several underwriters named therein (the “Underwriters”), relating to the public offering (the “Offering”) of a…
Why it matters: CPI kept its low-to-mid single-digit EBITDA growth target. Q3 results will show whether higher sales cover investment costs.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is up from last year. CPI keeps its low-to-mid single-digit growth target.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is down year over year, or CPI cuts its 2026 growth target.
Why it matters: CPI says TRISM expands its instant issuance market and expects stronger second-half IPT growth. Q3 can show early progress.
Supportive ifQ3 Integrated Paytech revenue grows faster than Q2's 4% year-over-year rate. TRISM is named as a growth driver.
Worry ifQ3 Integrated Paytech revenue growth is 4% or less, or CPI reports delays in adding TRISM revenue.
Why it matters: CPI raised its cash target after record first-half free cash flow. The full-year result will test whether cash gains continue.
Supportive ifCPI reports 2026 free cash flow of at least $45 million.
Worry ifCPI reports 2026 free cash flow below $45 million, or lowers its $45 million to $50 million target.
Why it matters: Management cited uneven prepaid demand as a drag on EBITDA. A recovery would ease that pressure; more declines would deepen it.
Watch forPrepaid Solutions revenue rises year over year in Q3, without a stated drop in demand.
Also watch forPrepaid Solutions revenue falls from last year again. Management says demand remains uneven.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$188 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $499 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,797 loss on $10,000 · 38.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: CPI's debt level fell to 2.7x in Q2. Its year-end target tests whether cash gains support more debt reduction.
Supportive ifCPI reports a year-end net leverage ratio from 2.5x to 3.0x, and does not raise that target.
Worry ifCPI reports a year-end ratio above 3.0x, or raises its target above 3.0x.
Why it matters: CPI raised its 2026 revenue growth view to high single digits to low double digits. Q3 results test that target.
Supportive ifOn November 4, Q3 revenue growth is positive year over year and CPI keeps its 2026 growth range.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls year over year, or CPI cuts its 2026 revenue growth range.