Pentair (PNR)

NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-07-08

$75.16-0.49%

Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change

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The thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Compounder

The bull case

Pentair grows sales about 4.5% a year. Profit margins improve with productivity gains. The company returns cash by buying back $200 million in shares. Demand for water treatment and cooling supports steady growth.

The bear case

Pentair faces a soft guidance outlook and recent share price weakness. CEO changes and capital obligations raise concerns. Revenue growth is slow and may not meet targets.

What's priced in

The price is about 20% below our fair value near $94. Analysts expect about 4.5% revenue growth. Our fair value is 14% below the Street median, reflecting cautious optimism.

What has to stay true

Share repurchases of at least $200 million per quarterIntact
Capital Allocationsupporting>= $200 million share repurchases next quarter · next quarter (qualitative)
Breaks if: Share repurchases fall below $100 million next quarter
Are they delivering?On Track this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Maintain disciplined capital allocation strategyCapital allocation
  Continue disciplined capital allocation with a focus on shareholder returns and strategic investments.
  On Track
  Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Repurchased $200 million of ordinary shares in 2026-Q1. The strategy shows delivering on capital allocation with significant share repurchases, aligning with management's focus on shareholder returns.
  Repurchased $200 million of ordinary shares in 2026-Q1
Operating income growth through productivity gainsIntact
MarginprimaryOperating income >= $210M next quarter · next quarter (qualitative)
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $200M next quarter
Are they delivering?On Track this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Expand margin through Pentair Business SystemCost
  Utilize Pentair Business System to drive productivity and margin expansion.
  On Track
  Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income increased from $203.1M in 2025-Q1 to $210M in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows delivering on margin expansion, aligning with management's focus on productivity through the Pentair Business System.
Revenue growth of about 4.5% annuallyUnder Pressure
Revenue Growthprimary>=4.5% YoY revenue growth · next 4 quarters (consensus)
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year
Are they delivering?Mixed this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Drive long-term sales and earnings growthGrowth
  Focus on organic growth strategy and margin expansion to drive durable earnings growth.
  Mixed
  Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $1,010.4M in 2025-Q1 to $1,036.7M in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows limited progress in revenue growth, aligning with management's focus on organic growth strategy.

Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.

Read the full Outlook — the long-form 1–3 year hold read

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.