Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Post Holdings (POST)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$84.85+2.08%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.66 → 8.60 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for POST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective capital allocation with share buybacks and controlled capex | It plans $370 million in capex next quarter and a $600 million share buyback. | Intact | Capex exceeds $390M or buybacks are suspended | Capital expenditures: $82.1M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Capex ~$370M and $600M share buyback authorization in FY26-Q3. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202682,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 19, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
POST is a consumer staples business with a multi-year thesis tied to earnings execution, rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is currently intact, though management execution is volatile and company quality has recently weakened.
The valuation evidence points to POST being cheap versus peers, while the model labels expectations as justified and fragility as low. This suggests the market is not pricing in an unusually fragile setup, but the expectations gap is negative and confidence in the valuation estimate is medium.
Near term, management is on track with its fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, and nine-month adjusted EBITDA was higher than a year earlier. Share repurchases are also progressing, but the CEO transition is still underway and recent company quality fell from 66.8 to 58.0; a guidance cut remains a key risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on POST delivering its narrowed fiscal 2026 guidance and managing the leadership transition without weakening execution. Weaker jobs data could add recession concerns for consumer staples, while continued earnings strength from sector peers could support the backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, POST’s earnings progress and sector tailwind support an intact thesis, while recent quality deterioration and management transition call for close attention. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain or improve profit margins |
| Profit margins and net income improved to $81.9 million in Q2 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $7.71 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above consensus | A primary condition in Post Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >= -1.8% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below -1.8% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.66 → $8.60 · observed estimates
$8.03B → $8.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $8.66 | $8,031,600,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.66 | $8,031,600,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.66 | $8,031,600,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.66 | $8,031,600,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.66 | $8,031,600,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.65 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.65 | $8,027,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.65 | $8,027,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.65 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.65 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.65 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.65 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.65 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.65 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.65 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.65 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.65 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.60 | $8,027,825,000 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.