Post Holdings (POST)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$84.64+0.45%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · POST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
POST — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-07
CEO — Robert V. Vitale: Robert V. Vitale is transitioning to the role of Executive Chairman, and Nicolas Catoggio has been appointed as President and Chief Executive Officer.
Why it matters: Pet food sales are a key part of Post's business. Declines could signal broader issues in the consumer market.
Worry ifPet food volume sales decline more than 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifPet food volume sales stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can shift company strategy and performance. Investors will want to see how this affects Post's direction.
Watch forThe company will share better plans or financial results by the next earnings call. This will be under the new leadership.
Also watch forNo changes in strategy or performance will be reported by the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment is crucial for overall company performance. It reflects market demand.
Supportive ifNet sales in Post Consumer Brands segment increase year over year.
Worry ifNet sales in Post Consumer Brands segment decline year over year.
Why it matters: Net sales growth trends will indicate if the company can sustain its revenue momentum.
Watch forQ3 net sales growth exceeds 4.7% year over year.
Also watch forQ3 net sales growth falls below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: This program shows management wants to give value back to shareholders. It can also show trust in the company's future.
Supportive ifPost completes the $600 million share repurchase program.
Worry ifManagement states they will not continue the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Meeting this guidance shows Post is on track with its goals. It shows management can carry out their plan well.
Supportive ifQ4 Adjusted EBITDA was between $1,560 and $1,570 million.
Worry ifQ4 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $1,560 million.
Why it matters: Completing this buyback could signal confidence in the company's financial health. It may also support share price.
Supportive ifThe company finished the $600 million share buyback plan as expected.
Worry ifThe company delays or cancels the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Stable sales would show recovery in important areas. A drop could mean bigger problems.
Worry ifQ3 net sales decline less than 1.8% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales decline worse than 1.8% year over year.
Why it matters: The CEO transition could affect strategic direction and operations. It's important to see how this unfolds.
Watch forThere are good updates on plans or performance from new CEO Nicolas Catoggio.
Also watch forThere are bad results or mistakes reported under the new CEO.
Why it matters: The CEO change can affect company plans and results. Clear communication is important for investor trust.
Watch forManagement gives a good update on the CEO change process.
Also watch forManagement reports problems or delays in the CEO change.
Why it matters: Poor performance in this area could show bigger problems in the company's growth plan.
Worry ifPost Consumer Brands reports a sales drop of over 10% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifPost Consumer Brands shows a sales rise or steady sales compared to last year.
Why it matters: Improved earnings would indicate the company is addressing its previous earnings miss. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings show net income higher than $81.9 million reported in Q2.
Worry ifQ3 earnings show net income lower than $81.9 million reported in Q2.
Why it matters: This is a key measure of Post's profitability. Falling short could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifIn fiscal year 2026, Adjusted EBITDA is less than $1,560 million.
Less concerning ifIn fiscal year 2026, Adjusted EBITDA is more than $1,570 million.
Why it matters: Slowing buybacks may show cash flow problems or changes in spending plans.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $50 million in a quarter.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases exceed $100 million in a quarter.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can impact company plans and investor trust.
Watch forGood performance metrics after the CEO change.
Also watch forPoor performance metrics after the CEO change.
Why it matters: Shifts in growth trends can signal broader market changes impacting Post's performance.
Watch forConsumer staples revenue growth speeds up toward its highs.
Also watch forConsumer staples revenue growth keeps going down.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $304 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,349 loss on $10,000 · 33.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.