Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL)
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$125.06-12.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.25 → 8.25 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for POWL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase cash from operations to at least $51M | Cash from operations rose to $51 million in Q2 2026. | Broken | cash from operations falls below $40M next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $100.227M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=51M USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 2026100,227,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical industrial business with robust earnings quality and a growth thesis tied to large orders and backlog. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has moved from high to medium after recent earnings misses.
POWL is described as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not point to a clear cushion from expectations despite the peer discount.
Near-term results have been mixed, with earnings misses in May and August, even as recent financial performance remains in the top half of the industry. Across the first three quarters of 2026, orders and backlog grew, and gross margin improved; management is on track on these priorities. Risk remains high, and the industrial sector backdrop is a headwind.
The multi-year view depends on management sustaining order growth, backlog expansion, and strong project execution. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers ETN, VRT, and BE would support the industrial backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, POWL’s thesis rests on converting its larger backlog into results while preserving margins, with recent earnings misses and sector risk tempering the evidence. The thesis remains intact, but confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Powell Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0.09 USD per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $0.09 next 4 quarters |
Dividend per share: $0.09 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.09 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 20260.09 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Keep profit margins stable near recent levels | Profit margins and execution remain stable. | Improving | EPS misses worsen beyond -10% next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 6% YoY | A primary condition in Powell Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 4% next 4 quarters | Revenue growth: 8.9% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 20268.896054 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.25 → $8.25 · observed estimates
$1.72B → $1.72B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.25 | $1,719,915,477 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 17, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.