Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL)
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$181.17+3.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · POWL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 27.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
POWL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-03
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (“Current Report”) and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated by refe…
Why it matters: More cash from operations shows strong financial health and good efficiency.
Supportive ifCash from operations increases by more than 10% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations goes down or stays the same from last quarter.
Why it matters: Updates will show if the company is on track to increase cash from operations as planned.
Supportive ifManagement says cash from operations grew a lot in Q2.
Worry ifManagement says cash from operations did not grow or fell in Q2.
Why it matters: New orders over $1 billion show strong demand and more work ahead. This shows Powell can take advantage of market chances.
Supportive ifNew orders reported for Q4 exceed $1 billion.
Worry ifNew orders for Q4 fall below $800 million.
Why it matters: Stable or rising dividends show strong cash flow. A drop may mean financial trouble.
Watch forDividend payment remains at $0.09 per share or increases.
Also watch forDividend payments drop below $0.09 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$261 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $703 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,705 loss on $10,000 · 47.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping gross margins above 30% shows good project work and steady prices. This shows strong operations.
Supportive ifGross margins reported above 30% in Q4.
Worry ifGross margins drop below 28% in Q4.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.09 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in dividends shows there may be cash flow problems.
Why it matters: A slowdown in backlog growth could indicate weakening demand in key markets.
Worry ifBacklog growth above 60% YoY would confirm strong demand and project execution.
Less concerning ifIf backlog growth is below 60% YoY, there may be demand problems.
Why it matters: Finishing the Jacintoport yard expansion will help make more products. This is key for meeting demand.
Supportive ifJacintoport yard expansion is completed by the end of Fiscal 2026.
Worry ifExpansion is delayed beyond Fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: A new order of this size would confirm strong demand and growth momentum.
Supportive ifA new order worth over $400 million has been announced in the data center market.
Worry ifNo new orders exceed $400 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Backlog growth above $2.5 billion would signal strong future revenue potential.
Supportive ifBacklog is over $2.5 billion. This shows strong demand in many markets.
Worry ifBacklog grows less than 10% to below $2.4 billion, suggesting demand weakness.
Why it matters: Strong backlog growth shows good future revenue potential and high market demand.
Supportive ifBacklog growth reported at over 30% compared to $1.3 billion in Q2 2025.
Worry ifBacklog growth reported below 20% YoY.
Why it matters: A big drop could mean problems with managing costs or a lack of demand.
Worry ifQ2 net income falls more than 5% compared to $46.3 million in Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income remains stable or grows compared to the prior year.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow from operations indicates better financial health and supports growth plans. It will show if the company can sustain its dividend.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $51.17 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $22.41 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A $400 million data center order would show strong demand and growth.
Supportive ifA press release confirming the award and details of the $400 million data center order.
Worry ifNo news about the $400 million data center order by the end of Q2.