Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
United Parks & Resorts (PRKS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.19+5.04%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.64 → 3.54 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PRKS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA growth in fiscal year 2026 | A primary condition in United Parks & Resorts's published investment case. The stated target is Adjusted EBITDA growth >0% in FY26. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 0% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a loss-making, higher-risk business setup rather than a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is in a watch state, with management execution and evidence of steadier results still important.
PRKS is described as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in assessment is tagged justified and shows low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, so the valuation evidence does not point to a clear cushion if execution remains weak.
For the near term, repeated earnings misses raise the risk of another miss, and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful setback. Management has reiterated 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA growth priorities, with progress in recent reported results and share repurchases, while advanced bookings are a mixed area.
The multi-year thesis hinges on management sustaining growth priorities and improving execution after recent misses. Near-term guidance is a key swing factor. Sector bellwethers may also signal whether the broader Consumer Discretionary backdrop remains supportive or weakens.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PRKS combines a peer-cheap valuation and management growth efforts with loss-making fundamentals, elevated risk, and a recent record of misses. The thesis remains watchful, with confidence dependent on execution and guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “While we faced first-half headwinds across international visitation, weather impacts and holiday shifts, we are fully focused on executing against our strategic priorities and driving growth in revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and total shareholder value," continued Swanson.” “"Despite the headwinds in the first quarter, we are encouraged by our forward indicators and remain committed to delivering strong financial performance and growth in revenue and Adjusted EBITDA in 2026.” Revenue was $483.320 million in 2026-Q2.
Growth in company-wide group booking revenue | Group booking revenue is improving, showing progress. | Broken | Group booking revenue declines or stalls in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth in fiscal year 2026 | A primary condition in United Parks & Resorts's published investment case. The stated target is >0% YoY revenue growth in FY26. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -1.41% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0% YoY revenue growth in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026-1.405922 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “While we faced first-half headwinds across international visitation, weather impacts and holiday shifts, we are fully focused on executing against our strategic priorities and driving growth in revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and total shareholder value," continued Swanson.” “"Despite the headwinds in the first quarter, we are encouraged by our forward indicators and remain committed to delivering strong financial performance and growth in revenue and Adjusted EBITDA in 2026.” Revenue was $483.320 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.72 → $3.54 · observed estimates
$1.73B → $1.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.72 | $1,729,062,800 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.72 | $1,729,062,800 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.72 | $1,729,062,800 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.72 | $1,729,062,800 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.72 | $1,729,062,800 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.72 | $1,727,486,710 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.72 | $1,727,486,710 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.07 | $1,731,672,128 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.07 | $1,731,672,128 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.72 | $1,727,486,710 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.04 | $1,730,227,378 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.04 | $1,730,227,378 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.04 | $1,730,227,378 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.04 | $1,730,227,378 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.84 | $1,719,760,024 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.56 | $1,714,787,410 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.56 | $1,714,787,410 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.84 | $1,719,760,024 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.56 | $1,711,083,130 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.84 | $1,719,760,024 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.84 | $1,719,760,024 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.84 | $1,719,760,024 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.84 | $1,719,760,024 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.84 | $1,719,760,024 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.84 | $1,719,760,024 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.84 | $1,719,760,024 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.74 | $1,714,143,323 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.67 | $1,711,705,591 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.67 | $1,711,705,591 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.67 | $1,711,705,591 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.67 | $1,711,705,591 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.67 | $1,711,705,591 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.64 | $1,711,372,258 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.60 | $1,708,366,957 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.60 | $1,708,366,957 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.60 | $1,708,366,957 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.60 | $1,708,366,957 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.60 | $1,708,366,957 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.60 | $1,708,366,957 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.60 | $1,708,366,957 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.60 | $1,708,366,957 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.60 | $1,708,366,957 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.60 | $1,708,366,957 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.60 | $1,708,366,957 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.60 | $1,708,366,957 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.60 | $1,708,366,957 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.60 | $1,708,366,957 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.60 | $1,708,366,957 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.57 | $1,706,750,290 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.57 | $1,706,750,290 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.57 | $1,706,750,290 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.57 | $1,706,750,290 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.57 | $1,706,750,290 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.57 | $1,706,750,290 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.57 | $1,706,750,290 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.57 | $1,706,750,290 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.56 | $1,704,562,873 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.56 | $1,704,562,873 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.56 | $1,704,562,873 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.54 | $1,703,352,040 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.54 | $1,703,352,040 | 6 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.