United Parks & Resorts (PRKS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$40.45-0.39%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PRKS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PRKS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Weak guidance could indicate ongoing challenges and affect stock performance. It will be a key indicator of management's outlook.
Worry ifManagement says earnings will be lower than what the market expects.
Less concerning ifManagement says earnings will meet or be better than what the market expects.
Why it matters: Increased bookings indicate strong demand and can lead to higher revenue. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifAdvanced bookings revenue for Discovery Cove is up by double digits from last year.
Worry ifAdvanced bookings revenue for Discovery Cove shows no growth or decline from last year.
Why it matters: A drop below the median would signal a change in the growth phase for the sector. This could impact investor confidence in United Parks & Resorts.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below the median for the sector.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains above the median for the sector.
Why it matters: Growth in group bookings shows good marketing. This can help with attendance drops.
Supportive ifGroup booking revenue for the company rises by over 50% from last year.
Worry ifGroup booking revenue growth falls below 25% compared to the previous year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $415 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,615 loss on $10,000 · 46.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: In-park spending growth is crucial for revenue. A decline could signal weak guest engagement.
Supportive ifIn-park per capita spending increases year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifIn-park per capita spending growth slows to below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Attendance recovery will show if the company can bounce back from Q1's decline. A strong recovery is key for revenue growth.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, attendance is over 4 million guests. This shows a strong recovery.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, attendance is below 3.5 million guests. This shows continued weakness.
Why it matters: The success of summer events and Halloween shows how guests engage and spend.
Watch forSummer event attendance and spending are better than expected. This shows strong guest interest.
Also watch forSummer event attendance and spending are below expectations. This shows weak guest interest.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for recovery. It shows if management's strategies are effective.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue grows year over year by more than 2%.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue declines year over year by more than 2%.
Why it matters: Continued buybacks signal strong cash flow and management confidence. A pause could raise concerns.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $100 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases or a significant drop in buyback value.
Why it matters: Attendance is key for revenue growth. A decline could signal ongoing issues.
Worry ifQ3 attendance drops year over year worse than -3.6%.
Less concerning ifQ3 attendance stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Attendance trends will show if the company can recover from recent declines. A rebound signals stronger demand and potential revenue growth.
Supportive ifIn Q3 2026, attendance grows each year. It exceeds 6.1 million guests.
Worry ifQ3 2026 attendance continues to decline year over year, falling below 6.1 million guests.
Why it matters: Higher Adjusted EBITDA means the company works better. It also brings in more money.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, Adjusted EBITDA is over $70 million. This shows recovery.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, Adjusted EBITDA is below $58 million. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing and its growth plans.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth compared to the previous quarter.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue is still down from the last quarter.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows better financial results. It shows that management's plans are working.
Supportive ifQ2 total revenue exceeds $278.3 million, showing a recovery from Q1.
Worry ifQ2 total revenue is still under $278.3 million. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Retail sales trends can impact visitor numbers and revenue for parks and resorts.
Watch forRetail sales report shows growth above 3% year over year.
Also watch forRetail sales report shows decline below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Attendance during seasonal events can show if guests are returning. Strong attendance may boost revenue.
Supportive ifAttendance for Halloween events exceeds last year's numbers across all parks.
Worry ifAttendance for Halloween events falls short of last year's numbers across all parks.