Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
PRIMO BRANDS CORP (PRMB)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.02+2.09%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.49 → 1.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PRMB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend per share at $0.12 | A supporting condition in PRIMO BRANDS CORP's published investment case. The stated target is Dividend per share >= $0.12. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.12 in 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $0.12 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.12. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 20260.12 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PRMB is a consumer staples business with strong recent performance and robust earnings quality, supported by a favorable sector backdrop. Its long-term thesis is intact, though management has been volatile and overall risk is elevated.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 1.01 premium and an expectations gap of -0.13. The evidence labels expectations as justified and fragility as low, but the premium leaves the thesis reliant on continued delivery.
Near-term results show solid execution: second-quarter net sales rose 3.8% year over year and adjusted EBITDA rose 5.0%, while management raised its full-year sales outlook twice and reaffirmed EBITDA guidance. The next-call guidance, weakening earnings surprises, and a recent history of a deep miss are risks, though the stated near-term miss risk is low.
The multi-year view depends on continued growth from premium brands and Direct Delivery, alongside margin expansion and delivery of the 2026 guidance. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could weigh on the business outlook, while stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support industry momentum.
PRMB’s operating momentum supports an intact 1-to-3-year thesis, but its expensive valuation and elevated risks make execution the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “See exhibit 8 for a reconciliation.” “2026 FULL YEAR FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Comparable Results 1 Previous Updated ($ in millions) Low High Low High Organic Net Sales Growth 0% 1% 1% 3% Adj.”
Generate free cash flow near $800 million | Free cash flow is strong near $800 million. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $790 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $142.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$790 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026142,400,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Deliver on raised Adjusted EBITDA guidance | It has a solid brand in health drinks and good management execution. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below the lower bound of guidance in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are reaffirming our Adjusted EBITDA guidance range as we continue to prioritize growth investments, while actively managing inflationary pressures through multiple levers across the business.” “At the same time, while we have multiple levers to help mitigate inflationary pressures, given the dynamic macro environment, we are widening our Adjusted EBITDA guidance range.” Operating income was $180.300 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain revenue growth near 3% annually | A primary condition in PRIMO BRANDS CORP's published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 3.82% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20263.820588 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““The strength we are seeing across the business gives us the confidence to raise our full-year Net Sales growth outlook for the second consecutive quarter.” ““This performance and the trajectory across the business give us the confidence to raise our full-year organic Net Sales growth outlook.” Revenue was $1.796 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.48 → $1.46 · observed estimates
$7.02B → $7.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.48 | $7,017,045,927 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.48 | $7,012,018,590 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.48 | $7,012,018,590 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.48 | $7,012,018,590 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.48 | $7,017,045,927 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.48 | $7,012,018,590 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.48 | $7,012,018,590 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.48 | $7,017,045,927 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.48 | $7,017,045,927 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.48 | $7,012,018,590 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.48 | $7,017,045,927 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.48 | $7,017,045,927 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.48 | $7,012,018,590 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.48 | $7,012,018,590 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.49 | $7,059,867,893 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.49 | $7,065,146,450 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.49 | $7,065,146,450 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.49 | $7,065,146,450 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.49 | $7,078,116,850 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.49 | $7,059,867,893 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.49 | $7,059,867,893 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.49 | $7,059,867,893 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.49 | $7,059,867,893 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.49 | $7,059,867,893 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.49 | $7,059,867,893 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.49 | $7,059,867,893 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.49 | $7,084,553,142 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.49 | $7,082,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.49 | $7,082,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.49 | $7,082,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.49 | $7,082,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.49 | $7,082,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.48 | $7,082,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.48 | $7,082,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.48 | $7,082,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.48 | $7,082,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.48 | $7,082,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.48 | $7,082,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.48 | $7,082,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.49 | $7,082,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.49 | $7,082,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.48 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.48 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.48 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.48 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.47 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.47 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.47 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.47 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.47 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.47 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.47 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.46 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.46 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.46 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.46 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.46 | $7,075,994,960 | 7 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.