Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.40+4.33%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.42 → 0.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PRVA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income improves by at least 15% annually | A primary condition in Privia Health Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY. | Intact | Operating income growth falls below 15% in FY26 | Operating income growth: 252.91% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026252.907674 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented healthcare business with a sector tailwind, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, though the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and recent earnings misses temper the strong reported results.
PRVA trades at a sizable premium to peers, supported by an expectation that its growth can endure. The expectations gap is elevated, while the evidence flags the premium as hard to justify given expensive valuation and weak execution quality.
Near-term results show strong revenue growth and improving operating income and Adjusted EBITDA, and management has raised full-year 2026 guidance. Cash generation is less consistent, and the run of earnings misses makes guidance delivery an important near-term test.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued revenue growth, margin improvement, and steadier cash conversion. A guidance reversal after the recent increase would damage credibility, while weakening jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare names; continued strength from sector peers would support the backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PRVA combines strong recent growth with improving profitability, but its expensive valuation and fragile execution record make consistent delivery central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Privia Health Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY. |
| Intact |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 12% in FY26 |
Revenue growth: 21.39% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=12% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202621.390455 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches ~$3.15 billion in 2025 | A supporting condition in Privia Health Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.15B. | Intact | Revenue guidance falls below $3.0B for 2025 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.10 → $0.42 · observed estimates
$2.67B → $2.68B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.10 | $2,665,354,970 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.10 | $2,665,354,970 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.10 | $2,665,354,970 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.41 | $2,663,396,937 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.10 | $2,665,354,970 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.10 | $2,665,354,970 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.41 | $2,663,396,937 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.10 | $2,665,354,970 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.41 | $2,663,396,937 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.10 | $2,665,354,970 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.41 | $2,663,396,937 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.41 | $2,663,396,937 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.41 | $2,663,396,937 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.41 | $2,663,396,937 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.41 | $2,656,692,828 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.11 | $2,689,823,440 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.11 | $2,689,823,440 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.11 | $2,689,823,440 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.06 | $2,703,086,000 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.41 | $2,656,692,828 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.41 | $2,656,692,828 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.41 | $2,656,692,828 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.41 | $2,656,692,828 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.41 | $2,656,692,828 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.41 | $2,656,692,828 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.41 | $2,656,692,828 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.41 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.41 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.41 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.41 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.41 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.41 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.41 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.41 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.41 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.42 | $2,681,494,849 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.42 | $2,679,301,776 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.42 | $2,679,301,776 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.42 | $2,679,301,776 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.42 | $2,679,301,776 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.42 | $2,679,301,776 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.42 | $2,679,301,776 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.42 | $2,679,301,776 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.42 | $2,680,684,129 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.42 | $2,680,686,776 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.42 | $2,680,686,776 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.42 | $2,680,686,776 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.42 | $2,680,686,776 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.42 | $2,680,686,776 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.42 | $2,680,686,776 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.42 | $2,680,671,476 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.42 | $2,680,671,476 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.42 | $2,680,671,476 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.42 | $2,680,671,476 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.42 | $2,680,671,476 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.42 | $2,680,671,476 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.42 | $2,680,671,476 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.42 | $2,680,671,476 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.42 | $2,680,671,476 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.42 | $2,680,671,476 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.42 | $2,680,671,476 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.42 | $2,680,671,476 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.42 | $2,680,671,476 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.42 | $2,680,671,476 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.42 | $2,680,671,476 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.42 | $2,684,377,359 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.42 | $2,684,377,359 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.42 | $2,684,377,359 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.42 | $2,684,377,359 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.42 | $2,684,377,359 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.42 | $2,684,377,359 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.42 | $2,684,377,088 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.42 | $2,684,377,088 | 9 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.