Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.66-0.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PRVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PRVA — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, are “furnished” and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference i…
Why it matters: Lower Attributed Lives could make it hard to get and keep patients.
Worry ifAttributed Lives for Q2 2026 is below 1.6 million.
Less concerning ifAttributed Lives for Q2 2026 is reported at or above 1.6 million.
Why it matters: A drop in operating income may mean higher costs or problems in operations.
Worry ifOperating income is below $7.4M.
Less concerning ifOperating income is at or above $7.4M.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges. It affects how investors view Privia's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median rate.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains stable or increases.
Why it matters: High cash flow conversion shows good financial health. It helps fund growth.
Supportive ifCash flow conversion from Adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow is around 80%.
Worry ifCash flow conversion from Adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow drops below 75%.
Why it matters: New leaders could change the company’s direction and stability.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new executive or board member within the next quarter.
Also watch forNo new appointments are made in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income helps the company manage costs. It shows improved financial health.
Supportive ifOperating income increases from $7.4M in Q1 to $10M or more in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income declines further from $7.4M in Q1.
Why it matters: Higher EBITDA guidance means strong performance. It also shows better profit margins.
Supportive if2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is now above $155M.
Worry ifGuidance remains at or below $155M.
Why it matters: Better margins mean improved efficiency and profit. These are important for cash flow.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin in Q2 exceeds 36.3% year over year.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin in Q2 falls below 36.3% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline in Adjusted EBITDA could show problems in operations and cash flow.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 is below $36.7 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 is reported at or above $36.7 million.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue growth continues and if cash flow improves.
Watch forQ2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 2026 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in net income shows profits are getting worse. This could raise concerns.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 2026 is reported below $3 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q2 2026 is reported above $3 million.
Why it matters: If practice collections growth slows, it may mean less money for Privia.
Worry ifQ3 practice collections growth below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifPractice collections growth remains above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth means Privia is growing well. This helps build investor trust.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating this target shows good performance and better profit margins.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reaches or exceeds $145M for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $140M for Q3.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means stronger finances. This helps support growth plans.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive and exceeds $5M in Q3.
Worry ifCash from operations remains negative or below $1M in Q3.
Why it matters: More attributed lives show Privia is doing well with its care model. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifValue-Based Care Attributed Lives increase to 1.65M or more in Q3.
Worry ifAttributed Lives decrease or stay below 1.6M in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $304 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,708 loss on $10,000 · 27.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.