Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.40+4.33%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PRVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 32.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
PRVA — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, are “furnished” and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference i…
Why it matters: Cash flow from operations was uneven in Q1 and Q2. The full-year conversion result tests management's cash flow goal.
Watch forReported full-year free cash flow is 70%-80% of 2026 Adjusted EBITDA.
Also watch forReported full-year free cash flow is below 70% of 2026 Adjusted EBITDA.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue rose 21.4% from a year ago, and Privia raised its full-year revenue range. Q3 results test whether that growth continues.
Supportive ifOn the November 5 earnings release, Q3 revenue is above $632.6M and full-year guidance stays at $2.35B-$2.45B or rises.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is $632.6M or less, or Privia cuts its $2.35B-$2.45B full-year revenue range.
Why it matters: Q2 Adjusted EBITDA rose 29.1% year over year. A higher Q3 result would support Privia's raised full-year range of $145M-$155M.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is above $37.4M and the $145M-$155M full-year range is kept or raised.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is below $37.4M, or Privia cuts its $145M-$155M full-year range.
Why it matters: Attributed lives grew 19.2% year over year in Q2. The year-end result will test the higher range set in August.
Supportive ifPrivia reports 1.625M-1.65M attributed lives for 2026 and keeps or raises its range.
Worry ifPrivia reports fewer than 1.625M attributed lives for 2026 or cuts the range below 1.625M.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $263 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,203 loss on $10,000 · 32.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.