Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$9.82 → $9.88 · observed estimates
PTC Inc. (PTC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$195.18+0.58%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.82 → 9.88 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PTC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS reaches at least $7.21 in FY26 | A primary condition in PTC Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $7.21. | Intact | EPS falls below $7.21 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $1.03 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.21. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 31, 20261.03 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$9.82 → $9.88 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PTC is a software growth business with a multi-year thesis centered on its Intelligent Product Lifecycle strategy and AI integration. The thesis is intact, but the overall signal recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed as an earnings miss and elevated risk weigh on the picture.
PTC is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation evidence also indicates a 0.72 premium versus peers and an expectations gap of 0.03, so the valuation picture is mixed. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, meaning the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, guidance execution is the main concern: a July earnings miss followed a run of misses, though the stated miss risk is low. For the multi-year view, constant-currency ARR growth was 9.1% in 2026-Q2, and 2026-Q3 cash flow exceeded guidance ranges; management also raised FY'26 guidance for ARR, revenue, and EPS while reaffirming cash flow guidance.
The thesis depends on continued growth from the Intelligent Product Lifecycle strategy and on management maintaining disciplined guidance and cash flow performance. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while Fed rate cuts or steadier results from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop. A litigation filing in October is another recent risk, but the evidence gives little detail about its potential effect.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PTC’s business case rests on steady execution and continued strategic growth, with elevated risk from recent misses and the litigation filing. The valuation evidence is mixed despite the cheap-versus-peers label. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in PTC Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $850 million. |
| Intact |
| free cash flow falls below $850 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $249.349M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $850 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 31, 2026249,349,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $2.58 billion in FY26 | A primary condition in PTC Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.58 billion. | Intact | revenue falls below $2.58 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $600.049M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.58 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 31, 2026600,049,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete $1.225-$1.325 billion share buyback in FY26 | A supporting condition in PTC Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.225 billion. | Improving | buybacks fall significantly short of $1.225 billion in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.12B → $3.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $9.82 | $3,115,624,217 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.82 | $3,115,624,217 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.82 | $3,115,624,217 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.82 | $3,115,624,217 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.82 | $3,114,377,872 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.82 | $3,114,377,872 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.89 | $3,117,617,199 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.89 | $3,117,619,599 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.88 | $3,117,619,599 | 5 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.