PTC Inc. (PTC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$141.02-6.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PTC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PTC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, PTC Inc. announced results for its third quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Section 9 - Financial Statements and Exhibits
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows PTC cares about giving value to shareholders. It shows trust in cash flow and business strength.
Supportive ifShare repurchases total $1.225 billion to $1.325 billion by the end of FY'26.
Worry ifShare buybacks are far below the $1.225 billion goal.
Why it matters: More AI use could lead to growth and more customers.
Supportive ifManagement says AI is a big topic in talks with customers.
Worry ifCustomer talks show little interest in using AI.
Why it matters: Updates will explain the company's growth outlook and affect how investors feel.
Supportive ifRevenue guidance for FY'26 is higher than current expectations.
Worry ifRevenue guidance for FY'26 is lowered or remains unchanged.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows strong cash generation and financial health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow for FY'26 meets or exceeds $880 million.
Worry ifOperating cash flow for FY'26 falls below $880 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$150 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $354 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,748 loss on $10,000 · 47.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback shows that management is confident and has spending plans.
Supportive ifManagement says they are making good progress on the $2 billion buyback.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays or cuts in the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Updates will explain how the sale affects PTC's focus and finances. Good updates may boost investor confidence.
Watch forManagement shares good news about the benefits of the sale.
Also watch forManagement talks about problems or bad effects from the sale.
Why it matters: This guidance shows PTC's ability to make cash after the sale.
Supportive ifQ4 cash flow guidance is between $240 million and $245 million.
Worry ifQ4 cash flow guidance falls below $240 million.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if PTC can maintain its growth momentum after the divestiture. Meeting this target would signal strong demand for its products.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth guidance of 8% to 9% is confirmed.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth guidance falls below 8%.
Why it matters: Good feedback means PTC is successfully using AI in its products, which helps growth.
Watch forCustomer stories or case studies show successful use of AI with PTC products.
Also watch forSome important customers report issues or are unhappy with AI use.
Why it matters: Growing customer interest in AI can drive PTC's revenue and strengthen its market position. It shows PTC's products are relevant in a changing landscape.
Supportive ifThere are more talks with customers about AI adoption and updating product data.
Worry ifCustomer interest in AI adoption is flat or going down.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows that the Intelligent Product Lifecycle strategy works well.
Supportive ifConstant currency ARR growth for FY'26 is reported between 9% and 9.5%.
Worry ifConstant currency ARR growth for FY'26 is below 9%.
Why it matters: Cash flow is key for PTC's financial health. Updates show how well the company manages costs.
Watch forManagement raises Q4 cash flow guidance to over $255 million. This shows strong control.
Also watch forManagement lowers Q4 cash flow guidance to under $240 million. This shows possible financial strain.
Why it matters: Earnings per share above this level shows strong profits and good cost management.
Supportive ifQ4 earnings per share meets or exceeds $1.70.
Worry ifQ4 earnings per share falls below $1.70.
Why it matters: This range will show if PTC can maintain its growth momentum after a revenue decline in Q3.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue guidance remains within the $630 to $690 million range.
Worry ifQ4 revenue guidance falls below $630 million.
Why it matters: More repurchases show good use of money and trust in the business.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $250 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $250 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Maintaining this growth rate is crucial for PTC's long-term success and investor confidence.
Supportive ifARR growth guidance stays at 9% to 9.5% for FY'26.
Worry ifARR growth guidance is lowered below 9%.