Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.95-6.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.31 → 0.41 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PTEN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital spending under $500 million in 2026 | They plan to keep capital spending under $500 million this year. | Broken | Capital spending exceeds $500 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $141.354M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: <=500 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026141,354,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PTEN is a cyclical energy-services business, meaning results can move with industry activity and conditions. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent momentum improved, but financial performance remains weak versus its industry cohort.
The evidence points to an expensive, fragile setup, despite a separate valuation measure describing PTEN as cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is elevated, but confidence in that measure is low, so the valuation picture is mixed rather than settled.
Near term, Q3 segment revenue and adjusted gross profit rose from Q2, and the company reported 104 operating rigs. Management is delivering on activity and pricing priorities, while its capital-spending discipline remains mixed and the annual spending outlook is not yet confirmed. Recent performance is still weak versus the industry, though company momentum has improved.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given PTEN’s recent earnings miss and the industry’s history of misses. The sector tailwind may persist if bellwethers NE, VAL, and HP continue to report strong results and raise guidance; misses or lower guidance could weaken that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PTEN’s thesis depends on sustained operating gains, disciplined capital spending, and a supportive energy-services backdrop. The evidence is mixed, and valuation confidence is low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash from operations was $63.9 million in Q1, showing some cash flow. |
| Broken |
| Cash from operations falls below $63.9 million quarterly average |
Cash from operations: $300.936M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Increase cash from operations above Q1 2026 level. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 2026300,936,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Redeem $482.5 million senior notes due 2028 | Patterson-UTI cut debt by $482.5 million in 2026. | Recovered | Failure to redeem $482.5 million notes by mid-2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.22 → $0.41 · observed estimates
$4.96B → $5.46B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.22 | $4,957,960,020 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.22 | $4,994,520,614 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.22 | $4,957,960,020 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.22 | $4,957,960,020 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.22 | $4,957,960,020 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.22 | $4,957,960,020 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.22 | $4,994,520,614 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.22 | $5,028,249,186 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.22 | $5,028,249,186 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.25 | $5,130,199,093 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.25 | $5,130,199,093 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.25 | $5,130,199,093 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.25 | $5,130,199,093 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.25 | $5,130,199,093 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.25 | $5,130,199,093 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.24 | $5,169,010,930 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.24 | $5,169,010,930 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.24 | $5,169,010,930 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.24 | $5,169,010,930 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.25 | $5,130,199,093 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.25 | $5,130,199,093 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.25 | $5,130,199,093 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.25 | $5,130,199,093 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.25 | $5,130,199,093 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.25 | $5,130,199,093 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.25 | $5,130,199,093 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.29 | $5,240,813,307 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.29 | $5,268,428,509 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.29 | $5,268,428,509 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.29 | $5,268,428,509 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.29 | $5,268,428,509 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.29 | $5,271,214,224 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.29 | $5,271,214,224 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.29 | $5,271,214,224 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.29 | $5,271,214,224 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.29 | $5,271,214,224 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.29 | $5,271,214,224 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.29 | $5,271,214,224 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.29 | $5,271,214,224 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.29 | $5,271,214,224 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.29 | $5,271,214,224 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.29 | $5,271,214,224 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.28 | $5,285,482,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.30 | $5,309,057,904 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.31 | $5,315,877,681 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.31 | $5,315,877,681 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.31 | $5,315,877,681 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.31 | $5,316,317,681 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.31 | $5,316,317,681 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.31 | $5,316,317,681 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.31 | $5,316,317,681 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.31 | $5,316,317,681 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.31 | $5,316,317,681 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.31 | $5,316,317,681 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.31 | $5,316,317,681 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.31 | $5,325,554,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.31 | $5,312,559,377 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.31 | $5,312,559,377 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.31 | $5,312,559,377 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.31 | $5,313,892,711 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.31 | $5,313,892,711 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.32 | $5,316,919,377 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.32 | $5,319,595,611 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.32 | $5,319,595,611 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.32 | $5,319,595,611 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.32 | $5,319,595,611 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.32 | $5,319,595,611 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.32 | $5,319,595,611 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.32 | $5,319,595,611 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.32 | $5,319,595,611 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.32 | $5,319,595,611 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.34 | $5,347,121,615 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.37 | $5,402,028,282 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.37 | $5,402,028,282 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.37 | $5,402,028,282 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.39 | $5,434,514,666 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.41 | $5,461,581,333 | 7 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.