Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.65-9.36%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PTEN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PTEN — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 28, 2026, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. announced financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. The press release, dated October 28, 2026, is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, shall n…
Why it matters: Management linked stronger cash flow to added room for debt cuts, investment, and cash returns. A decline would weaken that outlook.
Supportive ifReported 2027 free cash flow is higher than full-year 2026 free cash flow.
Worry ifReported 2027 free cash flow is flat or lower than full-year 2026 free cash flow.
Why it matters: More rigs would support management's plan to restart rigs. It would also help grow drilling activity in early 2027.
Supportive ifThe U.S. rig count exits 2026 above 104, then rises again in Q1 2027.
Worry ifThe U.S. rig count exits 2026 at or below 104, with no Q1 2027 reactivations.
Why it matters: Management linked a possible decline to less drilling in Saudi Arabia. A bigger drop would show that unrest in the region is hurting results more than planned.
Worry ifQ4 Drilling Products adjusted gross profit falls more than 10% from Q3's $51 million, to below $45.9 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 Drilling Products adjusted gross profit falls 10% or less from Q3, or rises above $51 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$205 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $555 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,339 loss on $10,000 · 33.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.