Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.42-1.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PTEN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
PTEN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. announced financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. The press release, dated July 29, 2026, is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, shall not otherwise…
Why it matters: Higher prices mean strong demand and help revenue grow. This matches what management said about pricing.
Supportive ifCompletion Services prices go up by about 5% to 7% from Q2.
Worry ifCompletion Services prices stay the same or drop from Q2.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows improved performance. It helps with how money is spent.
Supportive ifQ2 cash from operations exceeds Q1 results, showing a positive trend.
Worry ifQ2 cash from operations declines or stays below Q1 results.
Why it matters: Updates on debt management show how well the company is managing its debts.
Watch forManagement provides a clear plan for debt refinancing in the Q2 earnings call on July 22, 2026.
Also watch forManagement does not talk about debt refinancing. They give unclear details in the Q2 call.
Why it matters: This will show how the company manages its capital structure and finances. It is crucial for future investments and stability.
Watch forThe company completes the $500 million debt issuance.
Also watch forThe company fails to complete the debt issuance or delays it significantly.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$205 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $553 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,339 loss on $10,000 · 33.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More active rigs mean more demand for drilling services. This shows the company can take advantage of market conditions.
Supportive ifThe company exits Q2 with more than 95 active rigs.
Worry ifThe company exits Q2 with fewer than 90 active rigs.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue growth could signal a positive shift in the energy sector.
Watch forEnergy sector revenue growth picks up to above 7% year over year.
Also watch forEnergy sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Sticking to this capex discipline is crucial for financial health and future growth.
Supportive ifCapex for 2026 is under $500 million.
Worry ifIf capex goes over $500 million, it may mean overspending.
Why it matters: Paying off the Senior Notes would help the balance sheet and lower interest costs. This is an important step in managing money.
Supportive ifAbout $482.5 million of Senior Notes has been redeemed.
Worry ifRedemption fails or is delayed.
Why it matters: This number shows how well the company controls costs and capital. A strong EBITDA means good operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was about $220 million or more for Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $200 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This figure confirms the expected growth in drilling activity and pricing. It signals strong demand in the market.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted gross profit in Drilling Services is $145 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted gross profit in Drilling Services falls below $130 million.
Why it matters: A higher rig count means more drilling activity. This helps the company grow revenue.
Supportive ifThe average U.S. rig count exceeds 100 by the end of Q3.
Worry ifThe average U.S. rig count remains below 95 by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: This shows strong demand for completion services and good pricing. The company can take advantage of market conditions.
Supportive ifCompletion Services adjusted gross profit is $140 million or more in Q3.
Worry ifCompletion Services made less than $130 million in gross profit in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It shows a commitment to returning money to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share in Q3.
Worry ifThe company reduces the dividend below $0.10 per share in Q3.
Why it matters: This shows the company can make cash and return value to shareholders. It shows good operations.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for 2026 exceeds total dividend payments.
Worry ifFree cash flow for 2026 does not cover total dividend payments.