Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$5.66+3.66%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PTON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 6 industry peers
PTON — Principal Accounting Officer transition
Dated 2026-10-13
Chief Accounting Officer — Saqib Baig: The Chief Accounting Officer is voluntarily resigning to pursue an external opportunity, which is a genuine departure of a senior officer but is described as amicable with no disagreements.
Why it matters: Peloton reported $378 million in FY26 free cash flow. Meeting its new floor would show that cash gains continue.
Supportive ifFY27 free cash flow is at least $350 million.
Worry ifFY27 free cash flow falls below $350 million.
Why it matters: Gross margin rose to 52.6% in FY26. Reaching the FY27 goal would show that the gain continues.
Supportive ifFY27 total gross margin is 54.0% or higher.
Worry ifFY27 total gross margin is below 54.0%.
Why it matters: Paid fitness subscriptions fell 8.8% in Q4. A further drop below guidance would add to signs of member loss.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 ending paid fitness subscriptions are below 2.455 million.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY27 ending paid fitness subscriptions are at least 2.455 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$184 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $588 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,157 loss on $10,000 · 51.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.