Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.40+0.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PTON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 36.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PTON — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , Peloton Interactive, Inc. (“Peloton” or the “Company”) will hold a conference call regarding its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Peloton also issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Peloton is making reference to non-GAAP financial information in both t…
Why it matters: Gross margin is important for making money. Meeting this target shows good cost control.
Supportive ifGross margin for FY27 is reported at or above 54%.
Worry ifGross margin for FY27 is reported below 54%.
Why it matters: A smaller drop means better customer retention and engagement. It shows Peloton can keep its subscribers.
Supportive ifEnding Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions decline less than 9.8% YoY.
Worry ifSubscriptions decline more than 9.8% YoY.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating guidance shows Peloton can keep growing revenue despite problems.
Supportive ifTotal revenue for Q1 FY27 reported at or above $565 million.
Worry ifTotal revenue for Q1 FY27 reported below $545 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this goal shows Peloton is efficient and making more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was at or above $525 million for FY27.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $475 million for FY27.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$193 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $588 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,878 loss on $10,000 · 58.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if Peloton can maintain its revenue growth trend. Investors need to see if the company can achieve its targets after recent performance.
Supportive ifQ4 FY2026 revenue guidance is above $2.44 billion. This shows continued growth.
Worry ifQ4 FY2026 revenue guidance is below $2.42 billion. This suggests more declines.
Why it matters: Growth in this unit shows good expansion and more ways to make money.
Supportive ifCommercial Business Unit revenue grew by double digits from last year.
Worry ifCommercial Business Unit revenue growth was below double digits from last year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide key insights into Peloton's financial health and growth. It can impact investor sentiment.
Watch forEarnings report shows strong revenue growth and positive cash flow.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows falling revenue and bigger losses.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal shows Peloton makes strong cash and is financially healthy.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow reported at or above $350 million for FY27.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow reported below $350 million for FY27.