Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Pattern Group Inc (PTRN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$17.25-2.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.76 → 0.76 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PTRN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA growth of 30% to 32% for fiscal 2026 | Profit margins are improving with adjusted EBITDA growth near 30%. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 25% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) of $57 million, up 40% year over year.” “Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) in the range of $219 million to $220 million, representing approximately 44% growth year over year.” Operating income was $37.488 million in 2026-Q3. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PTRN is a high-growth technology business, with the thesis resting on rapid revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth and expansion beyond Amazon. The long-term thesis is intact, though its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable and the evidence carries medium confidence.
The valuation evidence is mixed: PTRN is described as cheap versus peers, yet its measured premium versus peers is 26%. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low, so the valuation signal is uncertain; the evidence also labels pricing as justified with low fragility.
Near-term results show strong execution: second-quarter revenue rose 47% year over year, adjusted EBITDA rose 54%, and 2026 guidance calls for 37% to 38% revenue growth and 38% to 40% adjusted EBITDA growth. International and non-Amazon revenue are also expanding quickly, but the business remains loss-making under the evidence snapshot and risk is elevated; a recent run of earnings beats does not remove the risk of a future guidance cut.
The main company-specific swing factor is whether PTRN sustains its recently raised guidance, since a reversal could damage management credibility. Near-term conditions could also improve if interest rates start to fall or technology-sector pressure eases, including if the sector bellwether LFTO stabilizes.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PTRN’s thesis depends on continued high growth and reliable guidance, with elevated risk and uncertain valuation evidence tempering the strong operating record. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Revenue growth of 32% to 33% for fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Pattern Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is 32% to 33% YoY growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 25% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 38.49% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 32% to 33% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 202638.488248 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchase program of up to $100 million | The company is buying back shares with a $100 million program. | Intact | Share repurchase program is cancelled or significantly reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.71 → $0.76 · observed estimates
$4.09B → $4.29B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.71 | $4,094,702,313 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.71 | $4,094,702,313 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.72 | $4,094,649,300 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.72 | $4,094,649,300 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.72 | $4,094,649,300 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.72 | $4,094,649,300 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.72 | $4,094,649,300 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.71 | $4,094,700,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.71 | $4,094,700,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.72 | $4,094,649,300 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.71 | $4,094,700,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.71 | $4,094,700,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.71 | $4,094,700,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.71 | $4,094,649,300 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.76 | $4,233,206,471 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.76 | $4,233,206,471 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.76 | $4,233,206,471 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.76 | $4,233,191,660 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.76 | $4,233,206,471 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.76 | $4,233,206,471 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.76 | $4,233,206,471 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.76 | $4,233,206,471 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.76 | $4,233,206,471 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.76 | $4,233,206,471 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.76 | $4,233,206,471 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.76 | $4,233,206,471 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.76 | $4,284,679,911 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.76 | $4,285,617,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.76 | $4,285,617,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.76 | $4,285,617,411 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.