Pattern Group Inc (PTRN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$17.25-2.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PTRN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 26.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 284 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PTRN — director transition
Dated 2026-03-18
Director — Daniel Gay: Mr. Gay resigned as a director for personal reasons.
Why it matters: Pattern guided to $840 million to $860 million for Q3. Results below the low end would break its recent growth run.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $840 million, or year-over-year growth is below 31%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $840 million, with growth of at least 31%.
Why it matters: Pattern raised its full-year revenue range after Q2. Another raise would show that growth is holding up.
Supportive ifPattern raises the 2026 revenue range above $3.42 billion to $3.46 billion.
Worry ifPattern cuts the 2026 revenue range below $3.42 billion, or reports full-year revenue below $3.42 billion.
Why it matters: Pattern guided to 31% to 34% Q3 growth. The wider tech sector is still growing, but its growth trend is easing.
Watch forQ3 revenue growth is at least 31% year over year, in line with the company range.
Also watch forQ3 revenue growth is below 31%, falling short of the company range as sector growth eases.
Why it matters: Free cash flow grew to $106 million over the past year. A drop would test the cash strength management highlighted.
Worry ifTrailing 12-month free cash flow falls below $106 million at the next report.
Less concerning ifTrailing 12-month free cash flow stays above $106 million at the next report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$200 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $672 loss on $10,000 · 6.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,788 loss on $10,000 · 47.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.