Pattern Group Inc (PTRN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.20-1.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PTRN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 30.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PTRN — director transition
Dated 2026-03-18
Director — Daniel Gay: Mr. Gay resigned as a director for personal reasons.
Why it matters: Updates on the $100M share buyback show confidence in finances.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks that are a big part of the $100M program.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: This shows the company can stay profitable while growing.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was $45 million or more. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $45 million. This may show cost problems.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into revenue and EBITDA growth. This is crucial for assessing overall performance.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue and EBITDA growth in line with or above guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue and EBITDA growth below guidance.
Why it matters: Confirming the revenue guidance of $810M to $820M shows strong growth momentum.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported within the range of $810 million to $820 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $810 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$247 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $674 loss on $10,000 · 6.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,788 loss on $10,000 · 47.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the sector's expansion. This could impact investor confidence in Pattern Group.
Worry ifRevenue growth drops below the sector median growth rate.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the sector median growth rate.
Why it matters: A high NRR shows strong customer loyalty and good service.
Supportive ifNRR was above 125%. This shows strong customer retention and growth.
Worry ifNRR was below 125%. This indicates possible customer loss.
Why it matters: Sustaining this growth rate shows strong market position and brand partnerships.
Supportive ifFull year revenue growth reported at 32% or higher, confirming strong demand.
Worry ifFull year revenue growth was below 32%. This suggests weakening demand.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may mean less demand or more competition.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth prints below 31% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 34% year over year.
Why it matters: Lower EBITDA growth may show higher costs or problems in operations.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA growth prints below 25% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA growth meets or exceeds 29% year over year.
Why it matters: Slower growth outside the U.S. may mean trouble with global expansion.
Worry ifInternational revenue growth prints below 80% year over year.
Less concerning ifInternational revenue growth meets or exceeds 87% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline in free cash flow could raise concerns about financial health and liquidity.
Worry ifFree cash flow for TTM drops below $100 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow for TTM remains above $106 million.