Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
PubMatic, Inc. (PUBM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$16.78+2.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.15 → 0.15 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PUBM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Consistent earnings beats | A primary condition in PubMatic, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is earnings beats in at least 3 of next 4 quarters. | Intact | fewer than 3 earnings beats in next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PUBM is a higher-risk growth business, not yet a proven profitable compounder. Its long-term thesis is progressing on revenue growth and operating margins, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort and the thesis state is watch.
The valuation evidence points to PUBM being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and model confidence is medium. The priced-in assessment is labeled justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not show unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, the main risk is weaker guidance, though the stated miss risk is low and recent financial performance is rated neutral. In 2026-Q2, revenue rose from $62.6 million to $78.6 million, and operating income moved from a loss to a small profit; management’s growth and margin priority is on track. AI adoption is mixed, leadership changes are progressing, and the overall risk label has risen to high.
The multi-year thesis depends on sustained growth and margin gains, alongside broader adoption of AgenticOS and autonomous campaigns. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; Fed rate cuts or stabilization among major technology peers could provide a more supportive backdrop, but these are uncertain scenarios.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PUBM has evidence of improving growth and margins, but profitability is not yet established and risk is high. The long-term thesis remains under watch as execution and guidance develop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in PubMatic, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material adverse ruling or settlement. |
| Intact |
| Material adverse ruling or costly settlement announced |
No material adverse ruling or settlement reported News and events show earnings beats and executive changes, but no mention of antitrust litigation outcomes or settlements. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Path to profitability with positive EPS | A primary condition in PubMatic, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.28. | Intact | EPS remains negative or below $0.28 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $-0.03 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.28. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-0.03 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 8% year over year | A primary condition in PubMatic, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 8% next year | Revenue growth: 10.55% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 202610.546452 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.19 → $0.15 · observed estimates
$0.32B → $0.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.19 | $315,960,911 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.19 | $315,960,911 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.49 | $315,499,080 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.49 | $315,499,080 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.19 | $315,960,911 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.19 | $316,183,881 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.49 | $315,499,080 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.19 | $316,183,881 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.19 | $316,183,881 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.19 | $316,183,881 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.19 | $316,183,881 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.19 | $316,183,881 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.19 | $316,183,881 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.19 | $316,183,881 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.19 | $315,960,469 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.49 | $315,499,080 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.49 | $315,499,080 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.49 | $315,499,080 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.81 | $334,165,580 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.19 | $315,960,469 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.19 | $315,960,469 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.19 | $315,960,469 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.19 | $315,960,469 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.19 | $315,960,469 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.19 | $315,960,469 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.19 | $315,960,469 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.15 | $334,610,985 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.15 | $334,610,985 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.15 | $334,610,985 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.15 | $334,610,985 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.15 | $334,610,985 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.15 | $334,610,985 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.15 | $334,610,985 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.15 | $334,610,985 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.15 | $334,610,985 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.15 | $334,610,985 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.15 | $334,610,985 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.15 | $334,610,985 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.15 | $334,599,846 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.15 | $334,609,857 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.15 | $334,620,200 | 6 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.