PubMatic, Inc. (PUBM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.50-2.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PUBM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PUBM — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-06
Chief Financial Officer — Steve Pantelick: The CFO is retiring and the company has initiated a search for his successor.
Why it matters: Megan Ramm's plans could affect revenue growth and partnerships, changing overall results.
Watch forMegan Ramm presents a clear growth strategy that aligns with AI transformation.
Also watch forMegan Ramm's strategy lacks clarity or fails to align with growth goals.
Why it matters: If this guidance is met or exceeded, it shows growth and market trust.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance is confirmed at or above $75 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance falls below $75 million.
Why it matters: A smooth leadership change is important. It helps keep investor trust and stability.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CFO with relevant experience and a clear transition plan.
Also watch forDelay in naming a successor or lack of clarity in the transition plan, raising concerns.
Why it matters: More use of AgenticOS shows strong demand for AI solutions and growth.
Supportive ifThe number of autonomous campaigns launched is over 30.
Worry ifThe number of autonomous campaigns launched is 30 or less.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$184 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $437 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,275 loss on $10,000 · 42.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New partnerships could enhance revenue streams and strengthen market position.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new strategic partnerships within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new partnerships will be announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: News about the buyback program may show smart money management. It may also show investor trust.
Watch forManagement says the buyback program will continue or grow.
Also watch forManagement says there will be a pause or cut in the buyback program.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show good use of money and trust in the company.
Supportive ifThe company buys back over 2 million shares in Q3. This shows strong cash flow.
Worry ifNo share buybacks happen in Q3. This may mean cash flow problems or changes in spending.
Why it matters: Earnings results will reveal how well the company performed. It is a key indicator of future growth.
Watch forEarnings beat expectations with strong revenue and EBITDA growth.
Also watch forEarnings miss expectations with weak revenue and EBITDA.
Why it matters: The sector is in a growth phase, but slowing revenue growth could impact PubMatic's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: If revenue growth is below this level, it may worry about the company's future.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $75 million. This shows slower growth.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is above $77 million. This shows growth is still strong.
Why it matters: This range will show if the company can sustain profitability growth after a strong Q2.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 falls within the range of $17 million to $19 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is below $17 million.
Why it matters: The CFO change might change how investors feel and affect future finances.
Watch forThe new CFO uses strategies that make financial numbers better.
Also watch forNew CFO struggles to maintain financial performance, leading to a decline in key metrics.
Why it matters: More use of AgenticOS will help revenue grow and improve market position.
Supportive ifThe number of AI-powered deals on AgenticOS is over 4,000. This shows strong customer interest.
Worry ifThe number of AI-powered deals stays the same or drops. This shows less customer interest.