PubMatic, Inc. (PUBM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$16.78+2.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PUBM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 61 industry peers
PUBM — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-06
Chief Financial Officer — Steve Pantelick: The CFO is retiring and the company has initiated a search for his successor.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue grew 11% year over year. Q3 results will test whether that pace holds.
Watch forQ3 revenue is above $77 million, with year-over-year growth still at least 10%.
Also watch forQ3 revenue is below $75 million, or year-over-year growth falls below 10%.
Why it matters: More campaigns and deals show whether buyers use PubMatic's AI tools at scale. Q2 had 80+ campaigns and 4,000+ AI-powered deals.
Supportive ifThe next report shows more than 80 campaigns and more than 4,000 AI-powered deals, with both counts rising.
Worry ifCampaigns or AI-powered deals stay flat or fall from the Q2 counts.
Why it matters: These areas made up about 60% of Q2 revenue. Growth there can help offset slower growth elsewhere.
Supportive ifThe next report shows CTV, mobile app, and emerging revenue above 60% of total revenue. Each grew from a year earlier.
Worry ifTheir combined share falls below 60%, or one or more of the three areas shrinks year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 38% year over year, and management sees margin growth ahead. Q3 will test that trend.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA tops $19 million and its margin is above Q2's 25%.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $17 million or its margin falls below Q2's 25%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$149 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $432 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,275 loss on $10,000 · 42.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.