ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.47+2.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PUMP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 18.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PUMP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, ProPetro Holding Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. On July 29, 2026, the Company posted an investor presentation to its website pertaining to the financial and operational results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 an…
Why it matters: Changes in spending plans can show how management views growth and investment needs.
Watch forSpending plans are raised to over $595 million for 2026.
Also watch forSpending plans are lowered to below $525 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Increasing capacity in PROPWR is key for ProPetro's growth. It helps them make more money.
Supportive ifPROPWR has contracts for over 400 megawatts of capacity.
Worry ifPROPWR has contracts for less than 350 megawatts of capacity.
Why it matters: Higher CAPEX guidance signals investment in growth. This could improve future revenue potential.
Supportive ifCAPEX guidance raised above $610 million for 2026.
Worry ifCAPEX guidance remains at or below $540 million for 2026.
Why it matters: New partnerships can help the company grow and improve operations.
Supportive ifThe company announced a new partnership with a major player in the industry.
Worry ifThere are no updates or failed talks about partnerships.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$238 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $625 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,390 loss on $10,000 · 43.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A rebound in revenue growth signals a shift from the current mature phase of the sector.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 2%, indicating a return to growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is at or below 2%. This shows that growth is still slow.
Why it matters: Activating the thirteenth fleet could help ProPetro meet rising demand.
Supportive ifThe thirteenth fleet is activated and operational by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe activation of the thirteenth fleet is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Weak RFP status may indicate challenges in securing new contracts and revenue.
Worry ifManagement says RFP status is better. This means more chances for contracts.
Less concerning ifManagement says RFP status is still weak during the earnings call.
Why it matters: A share buyback program can increase value for shareholders. It shows that management is confident.
Supportive ifA specific dollar amount for the share buyback program was announced.
Worry ifNo announcement or delay in the share buyback program.
Why it matters: An increase shows management's confidence in growth. It also means more investment in operations.
Supportive ifCapital spending guidance is now over $595 million.
Worry ifGuidance is lowered below $525 million.
Why it matters: An increase in rig count can indicate rising demand for ProPetro's services.
Supportive ifPermian Basin rig count increases by more than 10% from Q2 2026 levels.
Worry ifPermian Basin rig count decreases or remains flat.
Why it matters: If this happens, it shows strong demand in the completions business. It also backs management's growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 10% compared to Q2.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 5% compared to Q2.