Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp
Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. (PXED)
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.51-0.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.04 → 4.10 EPS · FY ending Aug 31, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PXED yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $244M to $249M Adjusted EBITDA in FY 2026 | Profit goals target $244 million to $249 million in adjusted EBITDA. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA falls below $244M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA for the same period is expected to range between $246.0 million and $250.0 million.” “Adjusted EBITDA for the same period is expected to range between $244.0 million and $249.0 million.” Operating income was $51.826 million in 2026-Q3. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical business with some growth potential from the Fuel50 acquisition, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is still insufficiently established because recent financial history is limited and confidence in the evidence is low.
The valuation evidence is mixed and low confidence: PXED is described as cheap versus peers, while another measure shows a 38% premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in assessment is labeled justified, with low fragility.
Near term, revenue is on pace for management’s FY 2026 range, while adjusted EBITDA progress is mixed. Fuel50 may expand workforce-intelligence capabilities, but its financial impact is not yet reported; a CFO transition is also a recent change. The estimated miss risk is 29%, and weakening jobs data or a guidance cut could weigh on execution.
The multi-year view hinges on PXED meeting its FY 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA ranges and showing that Fuel50 adds useful capabilities. Near term, a guidance cut or further labor-market weakening would be unfavorable; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would be supportive.
For the next 1 to 3 years, PXED has some operating progress and a new strategic initiative, but the evidence remains thin and risk is elevated. The thesis depends on continued delivery and proof that the acquisition strengthens the business. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain free cash flow yield near 9% | Its free cash flow yield is solid at 9%. | Intact | free cash flow yield falls below 7% | Free cash flow yield: 15.57% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202615.57 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $1,025M to $1,035M revenue in FY 2026 | A primary condition in Phoenix Education Partners, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1,025M and <= $1,035M. | Broken | annual revenue falls below $1,025M in FY26 | Revenue: $271.801M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1,025M and <= $1,035M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 14, 2026271,801,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Business Outlook For fiscal year 2026, the Company expects net revenue to be in the range of $1,020.0 million to $1,025.0 million.” “Business Outlook For fiscal year 2026, the Company expects net revenue to be in the range of $1,025.0 million to $1,035.0 million.” Revenue was $271.801 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.04 → $4.10 · observed estimates
$1.09B → $0.97B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.04 | $1,093,610,852 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.10 | $973,877,981 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.