Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Quad/Graphics, Inc. (QUAD)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.69-0.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.49 → 1.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for QUAD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures between $55M and $65M in 2026 | A primary condition in Quad/Graphics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=55 and <=65 USD_MILLIONS. | Broken | capital expenditures exceed $65M or fall below $55M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $12.3M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=55 and <=65 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202612,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk turnaround-style business, not a proven durable compounder: earnings quality is loss-making, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and recent performance is neutral. The long-term thesis remains under watch after a recent earnings miss, despite improved company momentum and earlier quarterly beats.
QUAD is described as cheap versus peers, but the expectations gap is negative, meaning the valuation evidence does not point to a clear cushion from low expectations. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not suggest that expectations are unusually vulnerable to a sudden reset.
Near term, the latest results show little sales growth: Q3 sales were essentially flat year over year, and adjusted EBITDA declined; operating income also fell from Q1 to Q3. Full-year sales guidance improved to a smaller expected decline, but management’s cost and productivity efforts have yet to show strong results, while the recent earnings miss and elevated risk remain concerns.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether integrated marketing offerings and deeper client relationships can turn milestones such as the first national In-Store Connect retailer into sustained sales growth. Near term, reaffirmed guidance is a key marker: a cut would be a negative signal, while continued strength or weakness among the named Industrials bellwethers could affect the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the case depends on a shift from nearly flat sales and limited productivity gains toward durable growth, while the recent miss and elevated risk temper the improved momentum. The business is cheap versus peers, but the evidence does not yet show that execution has resolved the central thesis concerns. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Free cash flow between $40M and $60M in 2026 |
| Quad/Graphics keeps free cash flow between $40M and $60M in 2026. |
| Intact |
| free cash flow falls below $40M in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $-33.8M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=40 and <=60 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026-33,800,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net debt leverage ratio near 1.5x by end of 2026 | The company aims to reduce net debt leverage to about 1.5x by year-end. | Intact | net debt leverage ratio exceeds 1.7x at FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue decline limited to -5% to -1% in 2026 | A supporting condition in Quad/Graphics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=-5% and <=-1% YoY. | Intact | revenue decline worse than -5% YoY in FY26 | Revenue growth: -0.22% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=-5% and <=-1% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026-0.221088 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.37 → $1.43 · observed estimates
$2.29B → $2.31B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.37 | $2,287,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.37 | $2,287,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.37 | $2,287,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.37 | $2,287,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.37 | $2,287,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.37 | $2,287,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.43 | $2,288,728,833 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.43 | $2,297,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.43 | $2,297,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.43 | $2,297,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.43 | $2,297,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.43 | $2,297,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.43 | $2,297,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.43 | $2,297,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.46 | $2,313,166,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.49 | $2,313,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.48 | $2,313,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.48 | $2,313,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.48 | $2,313,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.48 | $2,313,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.48 | $2,313,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.48 | $2,313,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.48 | $2,312,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.48 | $2,312,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.44 | $2,311,428,233 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.44 | $2,311,428,233 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.44 | $2,311,428,233 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.43 | $2,311,928,233 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.43 | $2,311,866,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.43 | $2,311,866,667 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.