Quad/Graphics, Inc. (QUAD)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.69-0.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · QUAD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
QUAD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On October 28, 2026, Quad/Graphics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: The new retailer is Quad’s first national network deal. A launch across 30 stores would show that its in-store media offer can grow.
Supportive ifThis winter, the retailer adds In-Store Connect screens to 30 Florida stores.
Worry ifThe launch is delayed past winter, or fewer than 30 Florida stores go live.
Why it matters: The new plant is meant to widen Quad’s packaging reach in the West. Opening on time would put the expansion plan into use.
Supportive ifQuad confirms the Salt Lake City plant opens and is operating by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifQuad reports that the plant opening moved beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Net debt rose to $422 million by September, while Quad kept its year-end leverage goal. The final figure tests whether cash flow can support spending and shareholder returns.
Worry ifYear-end net debt leverage is above 1.5x.
Less concerning ifYear-end net debt leverage is at or below 1.5x.
Why it matters: Free cash flow was negative $100 million through September. Quad says most cash flow comes in Q4, so year-end cash generation is a key test.
Worry ifFull-year free cash flow is below $45 million.
Less concerning ifFull-year free cash flow is at least $45 million and no more than $55 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$118 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $382 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,364 loss on $10,000 · 33.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Quad now guides to a 1% to 3% full-year sales decline. Better sales would show progress toward its 2028 growth goal.
Supportive ifFull-year adjusted net sales decline is less than 1%, or sales grow year over year.
Worry ifFull-year adjusted net sales decline is more than 3%.