Quad/Graphics, Inc. (QUAD)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.70+3.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · QUAD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
QUAD — earnings in line
Dated 2026-02-17
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On February 17, 2026, Quad/Graphics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: Staying in this range helps growth and keeps operations steady.
Watch forCapital spending is between $55M and $65M.
Also watch forCapital spending is outside the $55M to $65M range.
Why it matters: If the sector shows renewed growth, it could lift Quad's performance and outlook.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported above 6% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Falling below this threshold would suggest Quad is struggling to manage costs amid revenue pressures.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is less than $175 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is more than $175 million.
Why it matters: If it drops below $40 million, it shows money problems. This affects long-term growth.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was less than $40 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was more than $40 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$120 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $333 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,330 loss on $10,000 · 23.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better efficiency can help make more money. It can also support cost goals.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q3 is up from Q2. This shows better cost management.
Worry ifOperating income in Q3 is down from Q2. This shows cost management problems.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show ongoing problems in Quad's main business. This could affect future guidance.
Worry ifQ3 net sales decline worse than 4% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales decline less than 4% year over year or show growth.
Why it matters: Capex within the $55M to $65M range is vital for future growth and stability.
Watch forCapex was between $55M and $65M for Q2. This matches what management said.
Also watch forCapex below $50M or above $70M shows possible problems with spending.
Why it matters: A Net Debt leverage ratio of 1.5x or lower shows effective debt management.
Supportive ifYear-end Net Debt leverage ratio is 1.5x or lower.
Worry ifYear-end Net Debt leverage ratio exceeds 1.5x.
Why it matters: More buybacks would show strong use of capital. It would also show confidence in the company's future.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases in 2026 are over $20 million.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases in 2026 are under $10 million.
Why it matters: Positive Free Cash Flow shows better cash management and efficiency. This helps future investments.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow turns positive in Q3 or Q4 2026.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow remains negative in Q3 or Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in net sales shows a recovery. It backs management's strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales grew over 1% from last year. This shows a positive trend.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth is below 1%, suggesting ongoing challenges in the business.
Why it matters: More share buybacks can show management's trust in the company's value. It can help stock price.
Supportive ifShare repurchases in Q3 exceed 0.4 million shares.
Worry ifShare buybacks in Q3 are under 0.4 million shares. This shows less confidence.
Why it matters: This facility is important for Quad's packaging growth. It will help increase revenue.
Supportive ifThe Salt Lake City facility will start operations as planned in Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe opening of the Salt Lake City facility is delayed beyond Q4 2026.