Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
QXO Inc (QXO)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.66+8.11%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.65 → 0.53 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for QXO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt and capital allocation post $3B senior notes issuance | The company is improving capital allocation with new senior notes. | Intact | Debt levels become unsustainable or capital allocation harms growth | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, acquisition-led growth story rather than an established durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: momentum improved and the signal moved from cautious to mixed, but recent performance remains weak versus its industry cohort.
QXO is valued at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence points to a re-rating as the main driver of valuation differences. The expectations gap is negative, though model confidence is low; the snapshot labels what is priced in as justified and finds low fragility, so it does not show a clear sign that expectations are unusually fragile.
Near term, results remain a concern: QXO missed its most recent quarter and is on a run of consecutive misses, despite the latest event being described as earnings in line. Revenue rose between the first and second quarters of 2026, partly due to acquisitions, while adjusted EBITDA improved; integration and technology work are ongoing, with limited specific proof of operational gains so far. Management says the TopBuild acquisition closed as planned, but integration is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
Over the multi-year view, a key test is whether QXO can integrate TopBuild and turn its larger scale, technology work, and acquisition-led revenue growth into sustained operating improvement. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; results and outlook from GWW, FAST, and FERG are also important signals for whether the industrial-sector backdrop improves or weakens.
For the next 1 to 3 years, QXO’s thesis has a clear growth ambition but depends on successful integration and better execution, while weak recent results and a premium valuation leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is expected near $4.6 billion by 2030. |
| Intact |
| free cash flow falls below $4.2B by 2030 |
Free cash flow: $-248.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: FCF >= $4.6B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 14, 2026-248,100,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $50 billion annual revenue in a decade | QXO aims to grow revenue to $50 billion in a decade. | Intact | annual revenue fails to exceed $9.5B by 2030 | Revenue: $3.246B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $50B annual revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 14, 20263,246,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete and integrate TopBuild acquisition | The recent TopBuild acquisition supports this growth. | Intact | failure to integrate TopBuild or material setbacks reported | Acquisition completed; Q2 revenue beat estimates TopBuild deal closed July 2026; Q2 revenue topped estimates due to acquisition scale; no integration failures reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.72 → $0.53 · observed estimates
$19.36B → $18.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.72 | $19,362,354,618 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.72 | $19,362,354,618 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.72 | $19,362,354,618 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.73 | $19,319,597,644 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.73 | $19,319,597,644 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.73 | $19,319,597,644 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.74 | $19,375,568,900 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.73 | $19,319,597,644 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.73 | $19,319,597,644 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.72 | $19,310,810,291 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.72 | $19,310,810,291 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.72 | $19,310,810,291 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.72 | $19,310,810,291 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.72 | $19,310,810,291 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.71 | $19,324,643,530 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.71 | $19,324,643,530 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.71 | $19,386,929,330 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.71 | $19,386,929,330 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.71 | $19,324,643,530 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.71 | $19,324,643,530 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.71 | $19,324,643,530 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.71 | $19,324,643,530 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.71 | $19,324,643,530 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.71 | $19,324,643,530 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.71 | $19,324,643,530 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.71 | $19,324,643,530 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.65 | $19,197,476,207 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.65 | $19,197,476,207 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.65 | $19,197,476,207 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.65 | $19,197,476,207 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.65 | $19,197,476,207 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.65 | $19,197,476,207 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.65 | $19,238,283,084 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.65 | $19,233,088,195 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.65 | $19,232,754,862 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.65 | $19,232,143,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.65 | $19,232,143,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.65 | $19,232,143,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.65 | $19,232,143,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.65 | $19,232,143,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.65 | $19,232,143,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.65 | $19,232,143,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.65 | $19,232,143,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.65 | $19,232,143,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.65 | $19,232,143,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.65 | $19,232,143,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.65 | $19,232,143,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.65 | $19,232,143,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.65 | $19,214,643,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.65 | $19,214,643,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.65 | $19,214,643,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.65 | $19,214,643,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.65 | $19,214,643,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.65 | $19,214,643,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.65 | $19,214,643,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.65 | $19,214,643,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.65 | $19,214,643,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.65 | $19,214,643,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.65 | $19,214,643,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.65 | $19,214,643,750 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.64 | $19,132,257,237 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.61 | $18,948,188,816 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.60 | $18,870,778,290 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.59 | $18,814,883,553 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.59 | $18,814,883,553 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.59 | $18,814,883,553 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.58 | $18,792,094,079 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.56 | $18,750,041,448 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.56 | $18,748,014,017 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.56 | $18,748,014,017 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.56 | $18,746,908,754 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.56 | $18,746,908,754 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.54 | $18,633,225,614 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.54 | $18,565,094,035 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.54 | $18,565,094,035 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.54 | $18,565,094,035 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.54 | $18,565,094,035 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.54 | $18,565,094,035 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.54 | $18,565,094,035 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.54 | $18,565,094,035 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.54 | $18,565,094,035 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.54 | $18,565,094,035 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.53 | $18,528,620,351 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.53 | $18,528,620,351 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.53 | $18,528,620,351 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.53 | $18,528,620,351 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.53 | $18,528,620,351 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.53 | $18,528,620,351 | 10 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.