QXO Inc (QXO)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.64-8.06%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · QXO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 72.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 83.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
QXO — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-13
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Ken West took charge of daily operations on September 1. Q3 results can show early progress in running the wider business.
Watch forAfter West took charge, Q3 adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBITDA rose from Q2.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBITDA are both below Q2 levels.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $272 million. A higher Q3 result would show progress after TopBuild joined on July 1.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is above $272 million. The report gives the result and acquisition timing.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is $272 million or lower, or the report shows a decline from Q2.
Why it matters: QXO targets $50 billion in annual revenue within a decade. Q3 revenue can show whether its larger platform is growing, though deals affect comparisons.
Watch forQ3 revenue is above Q2's $3.246 billion, and the report explains the effect of recent acquisitions.
Also watch forQ3 revenue is below Q2's $3.246 billion. The report shows no sales rise from acquired businesses.
Why it matters: QXO named gross margin growth as a key test of its pricing and vendor talks. A rise would show these steps are working.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted gross margin rises from Q2, and QXO reports sequential gains in pricing or vendor terms.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted gross margin is flat or lower than Q2, with no reported gains in pricing or vendor terms.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$303 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $649 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,254 loss on $10,000 · 62.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: QXO says cash flow and lower debt matter after its acquisitions. Better cash flow and lower debt would support its growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 results show positive free cash flow and lower debt than Q2, with both figures reported.
Worry ifQ3 results show negative free cash flow or debt above Q2 levels.