QXO Inc (QXO)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.35-0.82%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · QXO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 65.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
QXO — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-13
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: This report will show if QXO can recover from the recent earnings miss.
Watch forThe earnings report shows better results than what analysts expected.
Also watch forEarnings report shows another miss or negative guidance.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates and the economy. This affects QXO's growth plans.
Watch forFOMC raises rates and QXO's stock price reacts positively.
Also watch forFOMC raises rates and QXO's stock price declines.
Why it matters: The issuance affects QXO's capital structure and ability to fund growth.
Watch forThere is a positive market reaction or better credit ratings after the issuance.
Also watch forThere is a negative market reaction or lower credit ratings after the issuance.
Why it matters: Better gross margins would show that QXO's pricing and buying plans are working.
Supportive ifGross margins go up compared to Q1 2026 results.
Worry ifGross margin declines or remains flat compared to Q1 2026 results.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$288 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $615 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,242 loss on $10,000 · 52.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better gross margin shows good pricing and buying strategies for QXO's profits.
Supportive ifGross margin expands by at least 1% in Q3 compared to Q2 results.
Worry ifGross margin shrinks or stays the same, showing pricing issues.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow will indicate that QXO is on track with its financial health post-acquisition.
Supportive ifFree cash flow turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important for QXO's growth plan.
Supportive ifOperating income shows an increase from the last quarter in the next report.
Worry ifOperating income keeps falling or stays the same in future reports.
Why it matters: Integrating TopBuild is key for QXO's growth and efficiency.
Supportive ifManagement says integration is going well. They report better job-site access and cross-selling.
Worry ifThere are integration problems. This leads to delays and disruptions.
Why it matters: Sustained revenue growth is key to achieving the $50 billion target by 2030.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is over $4 billion. This shows strong market demand and good acquisitions.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $3.5 billion. This raises worries about market conditions.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow would show that TopBuild is merging well and money is used wisely.
Supportive ifFree cash flow turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in Adjusted EBITDA is crucial for QXO to stay on track to double it by 2030.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 shows sequential growth from $272 million reported in Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls or stays the same compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Ken West's leadership may enhance QXO's operations and drive growth. His experience could lead to better execution.
Supportive ifLook for better operational metrics like gross margin and EBITDA in six months.
Worry ifWatch for no change in metrics or delays in integration.