Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
FreightCar America Inc (RAIL)
NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.20+0.48%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.06 → 0.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RAIL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve operating income from negative $0.6 million in Q1 2026 | The company plans to improve operating income from negative $0.6 million in Q1. | Intact | operating income remains negative through FY26 | Operating income: $-4.296M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income > $0. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 2026-4,296,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk industrial turnaround and execution story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: aftermarket growth is continuing, but delivery and cost improvements remain mixed.
RAIL is described as cheap versus peers, though its valuation rose recently and the expectations gap is slightly negative. Current pricing is marked as justified, with low fragility in what is priced in, rather than reflecting a broad mix of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, weaker execution is a concern: RAIL cut its 2026 delivery guidance after a delayed production ramp and removal of a customer order, and a recent earnings miss adds pressure. Aftermarket revenue grew year over year in Q2, but cost savings are not yet demonstrated in reported results, which included an operating loss and workforce realignment costs.
The multi-year thesis depends on delivery execution improving and the company converting its remaining backlog while growing aftermarket revenue. Near term, another guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from rail peers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RAIL’s long-term thesis remains uncertain: aftermarket growth is a positive, but delivery delays, fragile earnings quality, and sector headwinds leave execution as the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “As a result, we expect to generate approximately $12 million of annualized structural savings, with benefits beginning in the third quarter.” “While our updated full-year outlook reflects the shift in new railcar delivery timing, our lower cost structure and robust order intake support stronger results in the back half.”
Deliver 4,000 to 4,500 railcars in 2026 | FreightCar America aims to deliver 4,000 to 4,500 railcars in 2026. | Intact | railcar deliveries fall below 4000 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $500 to $550 million revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in FreightCar America Inc's published investment case. The stated target is $500M to $550M. | Broken | revenue falls below $500 million in FY26 | Revenue: $113.138M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $500M to $550M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 2026113,138,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.91 → $0.70 · observed estimates
$0.65B → $0.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.91 | $653,346,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.94 | $653,346,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.94 | $653,346,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.94 | $653,346,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.94 | $653,346,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.91 | $653,346,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.94 | $653,346,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.91 | $653,346,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.91 | $653,346,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.94 | $653,346,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.91 | $653,346,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.91 | $653,346,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.91 | $653,346,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.91 | $653,346,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.98 | $648,760,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.89 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.89 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.89 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.98 | $648,760,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.98 | $648,760,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.98 | $648,760,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.98 | $648,760,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.98 | $648,760,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.98 | $648,760,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.98 | $648,760,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.06 | $665,560,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.76 | $578,470,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.76 | $578,470,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.76 | $578,470,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.76 | $578,470,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.76 | $578,470,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.70 | $569,404,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.70 | $569,404,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.70 | $569,404,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.70 | $569,404,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.70 | $569,404,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.70 | $569,404,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.70 | $569,404,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.70 | $569,404,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.