FreightCar America Inc (RAIL)
NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.10+1.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RAIL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 31.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RAIL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 3, 2026, FreightCar America, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter of 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act…
Why it matters: Progress in this program shows better efficiency. It may also lead to future revenue.
Watch forManagement confirms the tank car retrofit program is on track.
Also watch forManagement says there are delays with the tank car retrofit program.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target is crucial for financial health and investor confidence. It reflects growth potential.
Supportive ifRevenue reaches at least $500 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifRevenue stays below $500 million, indicating weak growth.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue shows problems in demand. It also reflects market issues.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported down more than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue reported down less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in this area could help margins. It might also balance out revenue losses.
Supportive ifAftermarket parts revenue grew over 80% from last year.
Worry ifAftermarket parts revenue grew below 80% from last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$207 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $568 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,480 loss on $10,000 · 54.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: How well this plan works could affect investor confidence and stock performance.
Watch forPositive market reaction to the rights plan, reflected in stock price increase.
Also watch forNegative market reaction to the rights plan, reflected in stock price decrease.
Why it matters: Reaching this revenue target shows recovery from the Q1 drop. It supports full-year revenue plans.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at $130 million or more.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $100 million.
Why it matters: A margin below this level shows ongoing profit problems. It also shows cost management issues.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was below 1% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was above 2% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows strong future demand. It is a key sign of business health.
Supportive ifBacklog growth was above 10% from last quarter.
Worry ifBacklog growth was below 5% from last quarter.
Why it matters: Realized savings would lower costs and make things run better.
Supportive ifManagement says they saved $12 million in Q3.
Worry ifNo savings realized or savings below $12 million in Q3.
Why it matters: The next earnings report is crucial to see if the company can recover from the recent miss. It will show if management can address issues.
Watch forEarnings report shows a significant improvement from the May 2026 miss.
Also watch forEarnings report shows continued weakness or another miss.
Why it matters: Growth in aftermarket revenue helps the company's plans and makes more money.
Supportive ifAftermarket revenue growth was above 13% compared to last year.
Worry ifAftermarket revenue growth was below 13% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Revenue below this level means a big drop in business performance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $410 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue meets or exceeds $410 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows production and demand are getting better after delays.
Supportive ifQ3 railcar deliveries were 1,000 units or more.
Worry ifIn Q3, railcar deliveries were less than 900 units.