Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc (RARE)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.57-9.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RARE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dojolvi revenue between $100M and $110M in 2026 | Ultragenyx aims for Dojolvi sales between $100M and $110M in 2026. | Intact | Dojolvi revenue falls below $100M in FY26 | Revenue: $173M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $100M to $110M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026173,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth story in a healthcare sector with a supportive backdrop, not yet a profitable compounder. The 1 to 3 year thesis is intact, and recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry, but management execution has been volatile.
The valuation evidence describes RARE as cheap versus peers, with a modest expectations gap, though model confidence is low. The market appears to recognize some business risk, but the evidence does not establish how much future revenue growth or cost improvement is already assumed.
Near term, revenue progress supports management’s reaffirmed 2026 guidance: total revenue rose from $136 million in Q1 to $214 million in Q2, and Dojolvi revenue rose from $18 million to $27 million. Cost progress is less clear, as operating expenses fell from $305 million to $289 million while the 10% workforce reduction and expense goals remain only mixed; the company is still loss-making. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and weakening jobs data could add pressure through recession fears.
The thesis depends on RARE delivering its 2026 total revenue and Dojolvi guidance while making more progress on expenses. Sector support could continue if bellwethers VRTX, REGN, and MRNA keep beating earnings and raising guidance. A guidance cut, weaker employment data, or further execution problems would weaken the setup; recent M&A agreements and litigation are relevant events, but their effects are not detailed in the evidence.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis rests on continued revenue delivery and better cost control, with loss-making operations and volatile management keeping risk elevated. The evidence is mixed but currently intact. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=29.5% YoY revenue growth. |
| Intact |
| Revenue growth falls below 20% next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete 10% workforce reduction to reduce costs | The company is cutting costs with a 10% workforce reduction. | Intact | Failure to implement or complete workforce reduction by end of FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.13 → $-0.17 · observed estimates
$0.99B → $1.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.13 | $990,934,280 | 2 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.64 | $990,874,347 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.13 | $990,934,280 | 2 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.13 | $990,934,280 | 2 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.13 | $990,934,280 | 2 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.13 | $990,934,280 | 2 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.64 | $990,874,347 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.64 | $990,874,347 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.64 | $990,874,347 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.13 | $990,934,280 | 2 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.64 | $990,874,347 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.64 | $990,874,347 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.13 | $990,548,280 | 2 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.64 | $990,874,347 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.72 | $993,808,702 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.72 | $993,808,702 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.19 | $993,778,290 | 2 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.19 | $993,778,290 | 2 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.72 | $993,808,702 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.63 | $993,778,290 | 2 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.72 | $993,808,702 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.72 | $993,808,702 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.72 | $993,808,702 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.72 | $993,808,702 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.72 | $993,808,702 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.72 | $993,808,702 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.83 | $989,756,467 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.62 | $1,010,148,430 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.63 | $1,011,776,798 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.63 | $1,011,776,798 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.63 | $1,011,776,798 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.62 | $1,013,367,195 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.62 | $1,013,367,195 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.62 | $1,013,367,195 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.62 | $1,013,367,195 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.63 | $1,009,278,306 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.63 | $1,009,278,306 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.63 | $1,009,278,306 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.63 | $1,009,278,306 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.63 | $1,009,278,306 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.63 | $1,009,278,306 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.73 | $986,950,235 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.70 | $974,852,087 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.70 | $974,852,087 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.70 | $974,852,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.70 | $974,852,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.70 | $974,852,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.70 | $974,852,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.70 | $974,852,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.70 | $974,852,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.70 | $974,852,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.70 | $974,852,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.70 | $974,852,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.70 | $974,852,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.70 | $974,852,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.70 | $974,852,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.70 | $974,852,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,690 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,690 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,690 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,690 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,690 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,690 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,690 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,690 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,690 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,690 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,690 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,690 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,679 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,679 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,679 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,679 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,679 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.31 | $1,003,297,679 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.29 | $1,005,170,134 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.31 | $1,002,181,079 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.31 | $1,002,181,079 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.31 | $1,002,181,079 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.31 | $1,002,181,079 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.31 | $1,002,181,079 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.38 | $993,901,134 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.64 | $993,901,301 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.69 | $989,304,505 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.69 | $989,304,505 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.69 | $989,304,505 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.69 | $989,304,505 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.68 | $992,205,979 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.68 | $992,205,979 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.68 | $992,205,979 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.68 | $992,205,979 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.65 | $997,044,768 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.65 | $997,044,768 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.65 | $997,044,768 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.65 | $997,044,768 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.65 | $997,044,768 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.65 | $997,044,768 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.65 | $997,044,768 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.65 | $997,044,768 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.65 | $997,044,768 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.65 | $997,044,768 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.65 | $997,044,768 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.17 | $998,967,210 | 11 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.