Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc (RARE)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.30+3.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put RARE beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Biotechnology is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 18% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens strong on margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 59% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskUltragenyx's growth depends on the successful commercialization of its gene therapies. Recent revenue growth of 28% year over year and a Q2 earnings beat support this claim. The stock trades at 2.2× price-to-sales, significantly below the peer median of 11.4×. This suggests the market reflects modest growth expectations compared to our view. A 30% probability of missing next-quarter earnings adds risk, as does the recent sharp price drop of 44%. Peer multiples imply a price about 76% above where it trades. Our read remains intact.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. RARE is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 20 analysts currently covering RARE (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 12 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for RARE in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare RARE with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RARE Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Biotechnology — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put RARE next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: FDA review and potential approval of gene therapies UX111 and DTX401
Angelman trial failure impacts regulatory objectives and revenue potential.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $15.30
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $15.30.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Phase 3 setback raises concerns on revenue guidance.
Threatens: FDA review and potential approval of gene therapies UX111 and DTX401
Failed trial undermines potential revenue from gene therapies.
Advances: FDA review and potential approval of gene therapies UX111 and DTX401
FDA approval supports revenue growth and strategic objectives.
Advances: FDA review and potential approval of gene therapies UX111 and DTX401
FDA approval significantly boosts revenue potential for gene therapies.
Advances: FDA review and potential approval of gene therapies UX111 and DTX401
Stock surge reflects positive market reaction to FDA approval.
