Rhinebeck Bancorp, Inc. (RBKB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.82+0.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RBKB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
RBKB — President transition
Dated 2026-08-18
Director — Suzanne Rhulen Loughlin: The filing discloses the appointment of a new director to the Board of Directors, which is a routine governance event and not an executive departure.
Why it matters: Consistent net income growth supports management's focus on performance. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 is equal to or greater than $2.2 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 drops below $2.2 million.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can change interest rates and bank profits. This could affect Rhinebeck's earnings.
Watch forWhen the FOMC raises interest rates, net interest income goes up.
Also watch forWhen the FOMC lowers interest rates, net interest income goes down.
Why it matters: A big drop in non-interest income may show problems in fee services. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 non-interest income down year over year worse than 4%.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-interest income stays the same or increases compared to last year.
Why it matters: The conversion raised $88.8 million and could change how investors view the stock.
Supportive ifShare price increases by more than 10% in the month following the conversion.
Worry ifShare price declines by more than 5% in the month following the conversion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$65 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $258 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,933 loss on $10,000 · 29.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it may impact Rhinebeck Bancorp's performance. Investors watch sector trends.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median of 15%.
Why it matters: Completing this strengthens the bank's capital. It also helps support future growth.
Supportive ifThe stock offering completes with all shares sold and trading begins on July 22, 2026.
Worry ifDelays or issues arise in the stock offering completion.
Why it matters: If the stock offering is successful, it can boost capital and help growth. Delays may show problems.
Supportive ifThe stock offering is completed successfully with all shares sold.
Worry ifThe stock offering fails to meet its target or faces significant delays.
Why it matters: Continued growth in net income shows the bank's ability to manage costs and generate earnings.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 is over $2.6 million. This shows positive momentum.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 is below $2.6 million. This indicates potential issues.
Why it matters: News about M&A activity may show growth chances for Rhinebeck Bancorp. It can also show the company's future plans.
Supportive ifA completed acquisition or partnership can help a company in the market. This news matters.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements or delays in the planned activities.
Why it matters: The conversion is expected to boost capital. Monitoring ratios will show if it works.
Supportive ifTier 1 capital ratio improves above 14.5% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTier 1 capital ratio falls below 14.0% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in net income shows ongoing money-making problems. Investors care about stable earnings.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls more than 4% year over year from $2.6 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income increases or declines less than 4% year over year.
Why it matters: More past-due loans show worse credit quality. Investors watch asset quality closely.
Worry ifPast-due loans increase from $9.5 million reported in Q2.
Less concerning ifPast-due loans decrease further from $9.5 million.
Why it matters: Slower deposit growth may show trouble attracting funds. This impacts liquidity and growth plans.
Worry ifDeposits grow less than 2.7% from $1.1 billion reported in Q2.
Less concerning ifDeposits grow more than 2.7% from $1.1 billion.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can impact net interest margins. Investors will see how this affects profits.
Watch forNet interest margin goes up after the FOMC meeting on September 16.
Also watch forNet interest margin goes down after the FOMC meeting on September 16.