Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ROBLOX CORPORATION (RBLX)
NYSECommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-11-05
$47.65-3.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RBLX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase free cash flow to $1.1B to $1.3B in 2026 | Free cash flow should reach $1.1B to $1.3B this year. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $1.0B in FY26 | Free cash flow: $367M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $1.1B to $1.3B free cash flow. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026367,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, with the thesis centered on expanding its gaming audience and engagement over time. The thesis is in a watch state: management execution has improved, but recent financial performance remains weak and the business is still loss-making.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 5.21 premium, and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence points to some value tied to future opportunity, but model confidence is low and the snapshot does not show exactly what growth the market assumes.
Near-term results have been weak relative to the industry cohort, despite earnings beats in July and October. Over the multi-year view, revenue rose from $1.442 billion in Q1 to $1.572 billion in Q3, while audience and engagement also grew; however, the 10% global gaming goal is not yet measured in the supplied financials. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and a guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether audience expansion, older-user growth, and engagement can translate into stronger financial performance. Age-check completion rose to 64% of global daily active users in Q3, but safety delivery is mixed and the financial contribution from older users is not quantified. Near term, guidance, rate changes, and results from gaming peers are important swing factors.
RBLX shows measurable audience progress and stronger recent management assessments, but elevated risk, loss-making economics, and weak performance versus its industry cohort leave the 1-to-3-year thesis unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in ROBLOX CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is 20% to 25% growth in 2026. |
| Improving |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26 |
Revenue growth: 15.62% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 20% to 25% growth in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202615.61833 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Implement $3 billion share repurchase program | The company started a $3 billion share buyback program. | Intact | Buyback program is canceled or materially delayed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.12 → $-1.27 · observed estimates
$8.94B → $7.88B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.12 | $8,938,817,900 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.12 | $8,938,817,900 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.13 | $8,845,782,666 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.13 | $8,845,014,109 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.12 | $8,938,035,680 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.12 | $8,947,960,130 | 25 / 26 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.12 | $8,846,314,109 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.11 | $8,947,960,130 | 25 / 26 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.14 | $8,805,424,824 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.15 | $8,208,551,090 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.15 | $8,208,551,090 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.14 | $8,245,668,770 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.17 | $8,080,963,580 | 26 / 25 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.15 | $8,208,551,090 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.15 | $8,208,551,090 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.17 | $8,036,083,580 | 26 / 25 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.17 | $8,036,083,580 | 26 / 25 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.15 | $8,208,551,090 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.17 | $7,963,813,500 | 26 / 25 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.15 | $8,208,551,090 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.15 | $8,208,551,090 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.15 | $8,208,551,090 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.15 | $8,208,551,090 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.15 | $8,208,551,090 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.15 | $8,208,551,090 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.15 | $8,208,551,090 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.19 | $7,879,062,245 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.19 | $7,879,062,245 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.19 | $7,879,062,245 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.19 | $7,880,680,024 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.19 | $7,880,680,024 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.20 | $7,820,295,409 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.20 | $7,820,296,055 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.20 | $7,820,296,055 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.20 | $7,820,296,055 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.20 | $7,820,296,055 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.20 | $7,820,296,055 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.20 | $7,820,296,055 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.20 | $7,820,296,055 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.20 | $7,820,296,055 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.20 | $7,820,296,055 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.20 | $7,820,296,055 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.20 | $7,820,296,055 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.20 | $7,820,296,055 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.20 | $7,820,296,055 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.20 | $7,820,296,055 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.20 | $7,820,296,055 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.20 | $7,820,279,757 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.20 | $7,820,279,757 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.20 | $7,820,279,757 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.20 | $7,820,279,757 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.20 | $7,820,279,757 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.20 | $7,827,971,641 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.19 | $7,854,840,180 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.19 | $7,854,840,180 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.19 | $7,854,840,180 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.19 | $7,854,840,180 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.19 | $7,854,840,180 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.19 | $7,854,840,180 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.19 | $7,854,840,180 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.19 | $7,854,840,180 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.19 | $7,854,840,180 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.20 | $7,851,859,411 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.20 | $7,851,859,411 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.20 | $7,851,859,411 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.20 | $7,851,859,411 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.20 | $7,833,375,709 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.20 | $7,833,375,709 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.20 | $7,833,375,709 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.21 | $7,834,452,632 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.21 | $7,834,452,632 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.21 | $7,834,452,632 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.21 | $7,834,452,632 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.21 | $7,834,452,632 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.21 | $7,834,452,632 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.21 | $7,834,452,632 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.21 | $7,834,449,205 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.21 | $7,834,449,205 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.21 | $7,834,449,205 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.21 | $7,834,449,205 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.21 | $7,834,449,205 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.22 | $7,833,547,997 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.23 | $7,833,547,997 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.23 | $7,797,894,151 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.23 | $7,797,894,151 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.23 | $7,797,894,151 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.23 | $7,797,894,151 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.23 | $7,797,894,151 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.23 | $7,797,894,151 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.23 | $7,797,894,151 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.23 | $7,797,894,151 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.23 | $7,818,916,654 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.23 | $7,818,916,654 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.23 | $7,818,916,654 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.23 | $7,818,916,654 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.23 | $7,818,916,654 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.24 | $7,836,662,535 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.24 | $7,836,662,347 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.27 | $7,849,299,999 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.24 | $7,843,326,521 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.24 | $7,843,326,521 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.27 | $7,876,060,336 | 21 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.27 | $7,876,060,336 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-1.27 | $7,876,060,336 | 21 / 20 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 16 recorded
3 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.