ROBLOX CORPORATION (RBLX)
NYSECommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-11-05
$47.65-3.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RBLX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 28.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 0 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RBLX — officer change
Dated 2026-03-02
Chief People and Systems Officer — Arvind K. Chakravarthy: Resigned to pursue other opportunities.
Why it matters: DAUs reached 138 million and hours neared 34 billion in Q3. Continued growth would show that the audience is still expanding.
Supportive ifQ4 DAUs and hours engaged both rise year over year from Q3 levels.
Worry ifQ4 DAUs or hours engaged fall year over year from Q3 levels.
Why it matters: O18 users are Roblox's fastest-growing group and spend more in the U.S. than younger users. More O18 users could lift overall spending.
Supportive ifO18 users rise above 29% of global age-checked DAUs, up from 29% in Q3.
Worry ifO18 users fall below 29% of global age-checked DAUs.
Why it matters: The plan lets creators publish Roblox games in other app stores. Releases would test whether this can reach players beyond Roblox.
Supportive ifRoblox publishes select top games through Roblox Everywhere in the first half of 2027.
Worry ifNo select top games launch through Roblox Everywhere by the end of the first half of 2027.
Why it matters: Q3 bookings fell 12% year over year, even as users and play time grew. A rebound would show that spending is catching up with engagement.
Watch forQ4 bookings grow year over year, reversing Q3's 12% decline.
Also watch forQ4 bookings fall year over year again, extending Q3's 12% decline.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$221 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $650 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,674 loss on $10,000 · 66.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Build can turn prompts into games. More users and published games would show that creators are using the tool at scale.
Supportive ifRoblox reports more than 500,000 Build users and more than 70,000 games published.
Worry ifRoblox reports fewer than 500,000 Build users or fewer than 70,000 games published.