Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.37-1.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RCAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 806.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 34.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 771.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RCAT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and will hold a conference call regarding its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act…
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show Red Cat is on track to hit its annual revenue goal of $150 million to $180 million.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was $35 million or more. This shows strong growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was less than $30 million. This shows challenges in hitting yearly goals.
Why it matters: New contracts would validate Red Cat's position in the defense sector and drive future revenue.
Supportive ifLook for new military contracts for Black Widow drones or other products.
Worry ifNo new military contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The stock offering could give funds for growth and acquisitions, affecting future results.
Watch forThe stock offering is done, and funds are used for growth.
Also watch forThe offering is canceled or proceeds are not used as planned.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost management. This helps the company's growth plans.
Supportive ifGross margins were over 20%. This shows good scaling and efficient production.
Worry ifGross margins stayed under 15%. This shows ongoing cost issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$412 on $10,000 · ±4.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,048 loss on $10,000 · 10.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,100 loss on $10,000 · 61.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If the sector shows renewed growth, it may help Red Cat's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A successful offering can give money for growth and acquisitions.
Watch forThe offering is successful and raises at least $200 million.
Also watch forThe offering does not get enough investor interest or is delayed.
Why it matters: This growth rate would show Red Cat is on track to meet its annual revenue target of $150M-$180M.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 400% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 300% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline in gross margins could signal issues with cost management or pricing power.
Worry ifGross margins below 15% would show possible cost or pricing problems.
Less concerning ifGross margins at or above 15% show good cost management.
Why it matters: This report will show if Red Cat's financial struggles are improving or worsening.
Worry ifEarnings report shows a smaller loss than the previous quarter.
Less concerning ifEarnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter.
Why it matters: This acquisition adds wireless power. It can help Red Cat's systems work better.
Supportive ifThe acquisition is done. Quaze Technologies will start as a Red Cat business unit.
Worry ifThe acquisition may have regulatory delays or may not close as planned.
Why it matters: Improving gross profit margins is crucial for Red Cat's financial health. It shows the company's ability to manage costs.
Supportive ifGross profit margins improve further in Q2, showing continued progress from $1.97M in Q1.
Worry ifGross profit margins drop or stay the same in Q2. This shows issues with cost management.