Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.00-10.31%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RCAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 806.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 34.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 771.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
RCAT — divestiture
Dated 2026-10-23
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 21, 2026, Red Cat Holdings, Inc., a corporation incorporated under the laws of the State of Nevada (“Red Cat”), entered into a Business Combination Agreement (the “Agreement”) by and among Red Cat, SMOT Acquisition GmbH, a limited liability company organized under the laws of Austria and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Red Cat (the “Bidder”), and Steyr Motors AG, a stock corporation incorporated under the laws of Austria (“Steyr Motors”). Ca…
Why it matters: Q3 results on November 12 will show whether sales keep rising toward the 2026 target. Q2 revenue was $20.2M.
Watch forQ3 revenue rises above $20.2M, and Red Cat keeps its $150M-$180M 2026 target.
Also watch forQ3 revenue is $20.2M or less, or Red Cat cuts its 2026 target below $150M.
Why it matters: Higher margins would show that Red Cat is making more gross profit on each dollar of sales. The company still reports large operating losses.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin is above 16.1%.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin is 16.1% or lower.
Why it matters: The offer would add engine production and marine skills to Red Cat's maritime business. It also needs approvals and enough shares tendered.
Watch forRed Cat reports more than 50% of Steyr shares tendered and required approvals granted.
Also watch forThe offer falls short of the threshold: 50%-plus-one-share. It lacks required approvals or is withdrawn.
Why it matters: A place in the next phase could lead to a major military order. Teal is one of a small group of finalists.
Watch forThe U.S. names Teal as a winner or finalist for a Drone Dominance purchase order.
Also watch forThe U.S. names other firms and excludes Teal from the next phase or purchase award.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$314 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $999 loss on $10,000 · 10.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,696 loss on $10,000 · 77.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Full-rate production shows the USV is being built at scale. New orders would show customer demand beyond testing and trials.
Supportive ifRed Cat reports a new paid Variant 7 order or contract, beyond Navy testing and trials.
Worry ifRed Cat reports no new Variant 7 orders and says production has slowed or paused.