Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.37-1.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put RCAT beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Aerospace & Defense is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 806% growth a year, above the roughly 34% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 4% on a typical day and fell roughly 61% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskRCAT's growth depends on expanding through acquisitions to justify its current valuation. Revenue grew 527% year over year, but the latest earnings report missed expectations. It trades at 24× price-to-sales, above the peer median of 3×. This premium suggests that expectations are high and must be met. The risk lies in the elevated miss probability of 63%, which could lead to further valuation compression. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% below where it trades. Our read remains intact.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. RCAT is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 8 analysts currently covering RCAT (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for RCAT in the last 4 months.
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Compare RCAT with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCAT Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across our valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No fair value published
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
This applies to all three horizons. The trailing multiples, peer comparison, and quality and trajectory reads on this page are unaffected. Names move in and out of this state day to day as the methods converge or diverge. Method agreement on this name is low.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Aerospace & Defense — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put RCAT next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Expand through acquisitions
Expansion aligns with growth through acquisitions objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $8.37
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $8.37.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Expand through acquisitions
Tariffs may enhance competitive position for acquisitions.
Advances: Expand through acquisitions
Acquisition expands defense portfolio, aligning with growth objective.
Advances: Achieve revenue target of $150M-$180M for 2026
AI drone kit tests support revenue growth target.
Advances: Achieve revenue target of $150M-$180M for 2026
Pentagon spending boosts market potential for RCAT.
Advances: Achieve revenue target of $150M-$180M for 2026
Buy initiation indicates confidence in drone demand growth.
Advances: Achieve revenue target of $150M-$180M for 2026
Positioning for leadership supports revenue growth objective.
Advances: Achieve revenue target of $150M-$180M for 2026
Defense contracts and production ramp enhance revenue outlook.