Royal Caribbean Group (RCL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$265.19-0.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RCL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $265 RCL trades at 16× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median, but our blended $251 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $280–$415. Note: our $251 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($280–$415). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $361.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $77.34 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $119.87 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $204.20 | 10.5 | 27.15 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$280.00 – $415.00 (median $361.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-08-03
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 381% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 47.3 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.94/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $304.16 |
| 18.6 |
| 16.36 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $156.31 | 2.2 | 69.71 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $372.41 | 22.8 | 16.36 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $87.72 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $315.63 | 18.6 | 16.98 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $440.18 | 18.6 | 23.68 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $203.96 | 2.2 | 90.96 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $538.94 | 22.8 | 23.68 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $523.40 | 18.6 | 28.15 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $242.52 | 2.2 | 108.16 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $640.84 | 22.8 | 28.15 | Analyst | medium |