Royal Caribbean Group (RCL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$265.19-0.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Royal Caribbean grows revenue about 10% a year. Earnings per share should reach $17.3 in 2026. The company adds new ships and expands river cruises. It aims for 20% earnings growth per year by 2027.
Environmental and safety issues hurt expansion and port access. Cost control is weak despite revenue growth. Earnings may fall short of $17.3 per share in 2026.
The price is about 3% above our fair value near $273. Analysts expect about 10% revenue growth. Our fair value is 20% below the Street median, showing some caution.
Breaks if: Profit margins decline significantly below recent levels
Breaks if: EPS falls below $15.6 in FY26
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
RCL represents a durable compounder in the consumer discretionary sector. The company is focused on expanding its vacation portfolio and achieving ambitious growth targets, but it faces headwinds from the broader economic environment.
The current valuation suggests that RCL is priced relatively cheaply compared to its peers. The market seems to have a neutral expectation regarding its future performance, with a slight expectations gap indicating that investors are not overly optimistic.
Management has shown robust earnings quality and is on track with its expansion and growth initiatives. Recent financial performance has been neutral, but the company has managed to maintain steady revenue and profit growth despite a recent decline in momentum.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute its growth plans and navigate potential economic challenges. Key factors include guidance updates, inflation trends, and performance of sector peers like BKNG and ABNB.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat strengthens the read on RCL. However, recent cruise cancellations challenge growth in its vacation portfolio.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: No new ships or river cruise expansion by 2027
Overall, RCL's fundamentals appear solid, but the company must manage external risks effectively. Not investment advice.