Royal Caribbean Group (RCL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$333.15+6.38%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RCL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RCL — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-20
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 20, 2026, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (the “Company”) completed its previously announced offering of $1,250,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 5.550% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “Notes”), pursuant to an underwriting agreement, dated as of August 6, 2026 (the “Underwriting Agreement”), among the Company and BNP Paribas Securities Corp., BofA Securities, Inc. and Citigroup Global Markets Inc., as representatives of the sever…
Why it matters: Management says 2027 bookings are pacing ahead of past levels at higher rates. A sustained lead would support its demand outlook.
Supportive ifIn its next update, RCL reports 2027 bookings still ahead of past levels and at higher rates.
Worry ifRCL reports 2027 bookings no longer ahead of past levels, or rates below past levels.
Why it matters: RCL said 53% of planned 2027 fuel use is hedged. A lower share would leave more fuel costs exposed to price changes.
Worry ifRCL reports that less than 53% of planned 2027 fuel use is hedged.
Less concerning ifRCL keeps or raises its 2027 fuel hedge share at 53% or more.
Why it matters: Q3 costs fell due to expense timing, with some costs shifted into Q4. Higher costs could erase that gain.
Worry ifQ4 net cruise costs excluding fuel per passenger day rise more than 2.4% year over year, as reported.
Less concerning ifThose costs fall within or below the guided range of a 1.0% to 1.5% decline.
Why it matters: Management says it remains on track for a $20-range adjusted EPS in 2027. That would support its Perfecta goal.
Supportive ifRCL's 2027 guidance puts adjusted EPS in the $20 range and supports its 20% adjusted EPS growth goal from 2024 to 2027.
Worry ifRCL's 2027 guidance puts adjusted EPS below $20 or management says it is no longer on track for the goal.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $401 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,347 loss on $10,000 · 33.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: RCL guided to Q4 net yield growth of 4.4% to 4.9%. A miss would weaken its pricing and demand picture.
Worry ifQ4 net yields rise less than 4.4% year over year, as reported.
Less concerning ifQ4 net yields rise at least 4.4% year over year, as reported.