Royal Caribbean Group (RCL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$265.19-0.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RCL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
RCL — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-20
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 20, 2026, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (the “Company”) completed its previously announced offering of $1,250,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 5.550% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “Notes”), pursuant to an underwriting agreement, dated as of August 6, 2026 (the “Underwriting Agreement”), among the Company and BNP Paribas Securities Corp., BofA Securities, Inc. and Citigroup Global Markets Inc., as representatives of the sever…
Why it matters: Strong booking trends for 2027 suggest sustained consumer demand and revenue growth. This is key for long-term performance.
Supportive ifBookings for 2027 are ahead of past levels.
Worry ifBookings for 2027 are below past levels.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows strong demand. It also shows effective pricing strategies and business health.
Supportive ifTotal revenue for Q3 grows by 8% year over year.
Worry ifTotal revenue for Q3 grows less than 8% year over year.
Why it matters: New ships could enhance capacity and attract more customers, boosting revenue growth.
Supportive ifThe company announces the delivery of new ships, such as Legend of the Seas.
Worry ifThere are no updates on new ship deliveries or delays.
Why it matters: Ongoing negative effects may mean trouble for revenue growth and consumer trust.
Worry ifMore reports show booking drops due to global events.
Less concerning ifNo new booking drops reported, even with global events.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $425 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,975 loss on $10,000 · 29.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A decline in net yields could indicate weakening pricing power and demand for cruises.
Worry ifNet yields decline below 0.9% growth compared to 2025.
Less concerning ifNet yields increase above 0.9% growth compared to 2025.
Why it matters: Higher fuel costs can reduce profit margins. This may change how investors feel.
Worry ifFuel costs for the year exceed $1.3 billion based on current at-the-pump rates.
Less concerning ifFuel costs remain at or below $1.3 billion for the year.
Why it matters: Higher fuel costs could pressure margins and earnings. Monitoring this will show how well the company manages its cost structure.
Worry ifFuel costs are over $1.3 billion for the year, hurting earnings.
Less concerning ifFuel costs remain below $1.3 billion, supporting better margins.
Why it matters: Changes in fuel prices can affect costs and profits. Watching this shows financial health.
Worry ifFuel prices reported to be stable or lower than current hedged rates.
Less concerning ifFuel prices are much higher than current hedged rates.
Why it matters: Flat or increasing net yields indicate strong pricing power and demand. This supports revenue growth expectations.
Supportive ifNet yields reported flat or increasing compared to 2025.
Worry ifNet yields are down compared to 2025.
Why it matters: This target reflects management's confidence in earnings growth. It will show if the company can achieve its long-term goals.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for 2026 is confirmed in the range of $17.73 to $17.87.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance is now below $17.73.
Why it matters: More bookings would show recovery from global problems. It would also show strong consumer interest.
Supportive ifMediterranean bookings are rising and are higher than last year.
Worry ifMediterranean bookings are still lower than last year.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this EPS guidance shows strong demand and cost management. It confirms the company's growth trajectory.
Supportive ifThird quarter Adjusted EPS reported at $6.36 or higher.
Worry ifThird quarter Adjusted EPS was below $6.26.
Why it matters: This growth shows the company's plan to offer more vacation options. It shows management's focus on growth, even with market problems.
Supportive ifCapacity growth for 2026 is confirmed at 6.6%.
Worry ifCapacity growth is below 6.6%.
Why it matters: Achieving these goals would indicate strong long-term growth and financial health.
Supportive ifManagement says they are on track to meet Perfecta goals early.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays in meeting Perfecta goals.
Why it matters: A high load factor means strong demand. It shows good capacity management and helps revenue.
Supportive ifLoad factor for Q3 remains above 110%.
Worry ifLoad factor for Q3 drops below 110%.
Why it matters: Changes in fuel costs will directly impact profits and earnings guidance.
Worry ifFuel costs remain at or below $1.3 billion for the year, supporting earnings guidance.
Less concerning ifFuel costs exceed $1.3 billion, leading to a downward revision in earnings guidance.
Why it matters: Stable bookings would show strong demand for popular trips.
Supportive ifMediterranean bookings go back to the levels we saw before recent events.
Worry ifMediterranean bookings keep going down.