Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Arcus Biosciences, Inc. (RCUS)
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.31+2.12%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RCUS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating losses stabilize or improve | Management is focused on reducing operating losses despite recent challenges. | Intact | Operating loss worsens beyond -$134 million over next 4 quarters | Operating income: $-131M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss improves or stays better than -$134 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 2026-131,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a clinical-stage growth story, not a profitable compounder today. The multi-year view centers on casdatifan’s role in kidney cancer and progress in the broader pipeline, while the thesis state remains intact.
The valuation is tagged as stretched, with a durable premium versus peers. The expectations gap is positive but model confidence is low, so the size of that gap is uncertain. No valuation fragility gates have fired.
Near term, recent results are mixed: RCUS reported two earnings beats after a May miss, and revenue rose in 2026-Q2 after declining in 2026-Q1. Over the multi-year view, management is advancing casdatifan studies and immunology programs, but the company remains loss-making and carries elevated risk. A guidance cut is a key near-term downside risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on completing PEAK-1 enrollment, starting the planned first-line Phase 3 study, and showing progress toward establishing casdatifan in kidney cancer treatment. It also depends on pipeline milestones and continued funding, while weakening employment data or a guidance cut could pressure the near-term setup. Strength among healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.
The 1-3 year view remains intact, supported by clinical progress and a stronger healthcare backdrop, but profitability is absent and execution risk is elevated. The stretched valuation makes progress against key milestones especially important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Arcus Biosciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $50 million. |
| Intact |
| Revenue falls below $50 million in FY26 |
Revenue: $9M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $50 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20269,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain collaboration with Gilead Sciences | It maintains a strategic partnership with Gilead Sciences. | Under Pressure | Partnership with Gilead ends or materially weakens | STAR-121 collaboration discontinued Company announced discontinuation of the Phase 3 STAR-121 study conducted in collaboration with Gilead Sciences due to futility. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-3.10 → $-3.30 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-3.10 | $93,057,280 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-3.10 | $93,057,280 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-3.10 | $93,057,280 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-3.10 | $93,057,280 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-3.10 | $93,057,280 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-3.10 | $93,057,280 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-3.44 | $69,294,070 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-3.10 | $93,057,280 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-3.44 | $69,294,070 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-3.10 | $93,057,280 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-3.10 | $93,057,280 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-3.10 | $93,057,280 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-3.10 | $69,294,070 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-3.10 | $69,294,070 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-3.45 | $63,519,564 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-3.45 | $63,519,564 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-3.45 | $63,519,564 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-3.22 | $93,290,680 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-3.25 | $66,578,180 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-3.25 | $66,578,180 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-3.45 | $63,519,564 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-3.45 | $63,519,564 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-3.45 | $63,519,564 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-3.45 | $63,519,564 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-3.45 | $63,519,564 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-3.45 | $63,519,564 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-3.48 | $49,065,147 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-3.48 | $47,343,797 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-3.48 | $47,343,797 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-3.48 | $47,343,797 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-3.48 | $47,343,797 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-3.48 | $47,343,797 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-3.48 | $47,343,797 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-3.48 | $47,343,797 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-3.50 | $46,731,814 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-3.50 | $46,731,814 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-3.50 | $46,731,814 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-3.50 | $46,731,814 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-3.50 | $46,731,814 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-3.50 | $46,731,814 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-3.50 | $46,731,814 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-3.50 | $46,731,814 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-3.50 | $46,731,814 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-3.50 | $46,731,814 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-3.50 | $46,731,814 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-3.50 | $46,731,814 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-3.50 | $46,731,814 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-3.50 | $46,731,814 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-3.43 | $46,071,070 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-3.43 | $46,071,070 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-3.43 | $46,071,070 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-3.43 | $46,071,070 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-3.43 | $46,071,070 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-3.43 | $46,071,070 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-3.43 | $46,071,070 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-3.43 | $46,071,070 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-3.43 | $46,071,070 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-3.43 | $46,071,070 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-3.43 | $46,071,070 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-3.43 | $46,071,070 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-3.43 | $46,071,070 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-3.43 | $46,071,070 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-3.34 | $55,815,147 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-3.34 | $55,815,147 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-3.34 | $55,815,147 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-3.30 | $53,213,982 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-3.30 | $53,213,982 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-3.30 | $53,213,982 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-3.30 | $53,244,751 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-3.30 | $52,167,828 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-3.30 | $52,167,828 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-3.30 | $52,167,828 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-3.30 | $52,167,828 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-3.30 | $52,167,828 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-3.30 | $52,167,828 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-3.30 | $52,167,828 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-3.30 | $52,167,828 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-3.30 | $52,167,828 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-3.30 | $52,167,828 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-3.30 | $52,167,828 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-3.30 | $52,167,828 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-3.30 | $52,167,828 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-3.30 | $52,167,828 | 10 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.