Arcus Biosciences, Inc. (RCUS)
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$29.66-1.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RCUS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -48.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 63.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers
RCUS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-05
of this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Meeting revenue guidance is key to showing growth amid recent declines.
Supportive ifArcus reports revenue between $50 million and $65 million for full year 2026.
Worry ifArcus reports revenue below $50 million for full year 2026.
Why it matters: Initial data will show how well casdatifan works in early-line kidney cancer treatments. This could confirm its role as a backbone therapy.
Supportive ifThe first results from the ARC-20 group show casdatifan plus zimberelimab works well for ccRCC.
Worry ifThe first results from the ARC-20 group show low response rates.
Why it matters: Finishing enrollment in the PEAK-1 study is important. It helps move casdatifan forward for patients with IO experience. This is a big step to make it a standard treatment.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the PEAK-1 Phase 3 study is completed by year-end 2026.
Worry ifEnrollment in the PEAK-1 study is delayed beyond year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Increasing losses would show challenges in managing costs and could raise concerns.
Worry ifOperating losses are over -$134M reported in Q1.
Less concerning ifOperating losses improve or stay below -$134M.
Why it matters: Initial data from ARC-20 will show how well casdatifan works in early treatment. This could help it become a standard treatment.
Supportive ifInitial data from ARC-20 cohorts is presented in 2026.
Worry ifNo initial data is presented from ARC-20 cohorts in 2026.
Why it matters: The outcome of this study impacts the partnership with Gilead and future treatments.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new study or trial that replaces the discontinued STAR-121.
Also watch forNo new studies are announced. Focus remains on the stopped STAR-121.
Why it matters: Progress in this partnership is key for growth. It impacts future revenue potential.
Supportive ifGilead made a public announcement. It is about new projects or milestones.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in work with Gilead.
Why it matters: Higher revenue shows progress after a big drop.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue shows growth compared to $17M in Q1.
Worry ifQ2 revenue continues to decline or stays below $17M.
Why it matters: Managing losses is key for financial health. It affects how investors feel.
Worry ifOperating losses decrease by more than 10% in the next financial report.
Less concerning ifOperating losses go up or stay the same.
Why it matters: Starting trials for AB102 could show progress in Arcus's immunology pipeline, a key growth area.
Supportive ifAB102 is confirmed to enter clinical trials in the third quarter of 2026.
Worry ifThe start of AB102's clinical trial is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Better response rates could prove casdatifan as a top treatment for kidney cancer.
Supportive ifCasdatifan's response rate goes above 45% in the next data update.
Worry ifCasdatifan's response rate stays below 45% in the next data update.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance of $50M to $65M for 2026 shows Arcus's ability to grow despite recent declines. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue guidance is confirmed or raised in Q2 earnings.
Worry ifRevenue guidance is lowered in Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a priority. It shows if the company is improving its financial health.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reported above 10% year over year in the next earnings report.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Data from ARC-20 will show how well casdatifan works in early-line treatments.
Supportive ifThe first data will come from ARC-20 groups. They are studying casdatifan in early treatments in 2026.
Worry ifNo initial data is presented from ARC-20 cohorts in 2026.
Why it matters: Starting this study will be a key step in establishing casdatifan as a new standard treatment.
Supportive ifThe first Phase 3 study for casdatifan in a TKI-free plan starts by 2026.
Worry ifThe study is not initiated as planned or is delayed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$211 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $630 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,778 loss on $10,000 · 27.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.