Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Redwire Corp. (RDW)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$6.19-19.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RDW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt and financial obligations without distress | A supporting condition in Redwire Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is No new material financial distress or defaults. | Under Pressure | New material financial obligations or defaults occur | Qualitative: New direct financial obligation (2.03) and credit amendment (1.01) filed in Jul 2026 July 2026 filings show a new direct financial obligation and credit agreement amendment, signaling ongoing debt management activity. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround situation with a medium confidence level. The company is currently loss-making and has volatile management, which adds to the uncertainty of its recovery trajectory.
The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation, reflecting a durable premium compared to peers. However, there is a significant expectations gap, indicating that investors may be cautious about future performance.
Fundamentals are likely to remain weak in the near term, as recent earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down. Management is focused on achieving revenue targets and improving liquidity, which may help stabilize the business.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for RDW. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could further pressure RDW's performance.
In the next 1 to 3 years, RDW's outlook is uncertain due to its weak financials and high risk. Monitoring sector performance and management execution will be crucial. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Reduction in net losses and negative EPS | A primary condition in Redwire Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows toward -$0.41 or better by FY27. | Improving | EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.68 in FY26 or fails to improve in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $-0.09 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows toward -$0.41 or better by FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 2026-0.09 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue between $450M and $500M for FY26 | Redwire aims for revenue between $450M and $500M in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $450 million in FY26 | Revenue: $109.035M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $450 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 2026109,035,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.41 → $-0.32 · observed estimates
$0.57B → $0.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.41 | $565,873,990 | 1 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.41 | $565,873,990 | 1 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.41 | $565,873,990 | 1 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.41 | $565,873,990 | 1 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.41 | $565,873,990 | 1 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.41 | $565,873,990 | 1 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.53 | $569,054,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.41 | $565,873,990 | 1 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.53 | $569,054,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.53 | $569,054,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.41 | $565,873,990 | 1 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.41 | $565,873,990 | 1 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.53 | $569,054,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.33 | $569,011,490 | 1 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.33 | $562,400,620 | 1 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.33 | $562,400,620 | 1 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.33 | $562,400,620 | 1 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.39 | $559,832,850 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.51 | $569,975,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.51 | $569,975,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.51 | $569,975,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.51 | $569,975,286 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.51 | $569,975,286 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.51 | $569,975,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.51 | $569,975,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.37 | $562,816,429 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.36 | $564,830,714 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.36 | $564,830,714 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.36 | $564,830,714 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.36 | $564,830,714 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.35 | $564,845,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.35 | $564,845,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.35 | $564,845,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.35 | $564,845,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.35 | $564,845,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.35 | $564,845,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.36 | $564,077,380 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.36 | $564,077,380 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.36 | $564,077,380 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.36 | $564,077,380 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.36 | $564,077,380 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.36 | $564,077,380 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.36 | $564,077,380 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.36 | $564,077,380 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.36 | $564,077,380 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.36 | $564,077,380 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.36 | $564,077,380 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.36 | $564,078,755 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.36 | $564,078,755 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.36 | $564,078,755 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.36 | $564,078,755 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.36 | $564,078,755 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.34 | $563,903,338 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.34 | $563,946,560 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.34 | $563,946,560 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.34 | $563,946,560 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.34 | $563,946,560 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.34 | $563,946,560 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.34 | $563,946,560 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.34 | $563,946,560 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.34 | $563,946,560 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.34 | $563,946,560 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.34 | $564,421,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.34 | $564,411,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.32 | $563,491,504 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.32 | $563,491,504 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.