Redwire Corp. (RDW)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.53+1.54%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Redwire aims for revenue between $450M and $500M in 2026. Sales grew from $61.4M in 2025-Q1 to $96.9M in 2026-Q1. Winning a NATO contract supports growth. The company is advancing its space tech business despite losses.
The company is still loss-making with negative free cash flow. Recent sharp share price drop shows investor concern. Debt and capital obligations may pressure financial health.
The price is about 5% below our fair value near $11. Analysts expect about 33% revenue growth. Our fair value is 28% below the Street median, reflecting caution on profitability and risk.
Breaks if: New material financial obligations or defaults occur
Breaks if: EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.68 in FY26 or fails to improve in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is a turnaround story, as RDW is currently loss-making and has volatile management. The thesis state is cautious, reflecting recent financial struggles and the need for improvement.
The market appears to be pricing in a justified valuation, although there is a notable expectations gap. RDW's premium compared to peers suggests that investors are aware of its challenges but still see some potential.
Management is focused on achieving revenue targets and improving cash flow, with some success noted in recent quarters. However, the overall financial performance remains weak, which could pose risks in the near term.
The long-term thesis hinges on RDW's ability to maintain its revenue guidance and improve governance. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX will be crucial in determining the overall momentum for RDW.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat strengthens the read on RDW. However, there are challenges in achieving the 2026 revenue target of $450 million to $500 million. This raises concerns about potential revenue growth issues.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $450 million in FY26
Redwire aims to achieve revenue between $450 million and $500 million for the fiscal year 2026.
In the next 1 to 3 years, RDW's outlook is uncertain, with significant risks and challenges ahead. Not investment advice.