Redwire Corp. (RDW)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.53+1.54%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RDW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RDW — director transition
Dated 2026-07-14
Class III director and member of the Audit Committee — Gregory L. Heston: Mr. Gregory L. Heston was appointed to fill a vacancy on the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: A rebound in sector growth could benefit Redwire Corp. and improve its market position.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Better governance can build investor trust and improve how the company runs.
Supportive ifRedwire starts the new governance changes, including the Risk Committee.
Worry ifThe proposed governance changes do not happen.
Why it matters: This target is key for Redwire's growth story. Meeting it shows strong demand.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue reports show growth on track to meet or exceed $450M.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue is under $400M. This shows weak demand.
Why it matters: This agreement can give money for growth. Progress shows strong financial health.
Supportive ifThey said they got money from the Equity Distribution Agreement.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the agreement. This may mean financial problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$452 on $10,000 · ±4.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,045 loss on $10,000 · 10.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,996 loss on $10,000 · 70.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target supports Redwire's goal of achieving $450M to $500M for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is $112 million or more. This shows continued growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is less than $100 million. This shows challenges in reaching the annual goal.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is slowing. This could affect Redwire's growth and valuation.
Worry ifSector growth is speeding up again. This improves Redwire's outlook.
Less concerning ifSector growth is slowing down. This puts pressure on Redwire's performance.
Why it matters: The court's decision will affect how Redwire is run. It may also change its liabilities.
Watch forThe court has approved the settlement and governance reforms.
Also watch forThe court rejected the settlement, which means more legal battles.
Why it matters: Creating this committee is important. It helps improve governance and manage risks.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the Risk Committee's formation and its first meeting.
Worry ifNo announcement of the Risk Committee by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: These reforms are important. They help manage risks and build investor trust.
Supportive ifLook for a formal announcement about the new Risk Committee and reforms.
Worry ifNo updates on governance reforms or delays in making them happen.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows Redwire is on track for its 2026 revenue goal of $450M to $500M.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at $100M or higher.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $90M.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this growth shows Redwire is on track to hit its 2026 revenue target.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 7% or more year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 7% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping enough cash is key for stability and funding growth.
Supportive ifTotal cash is over $175 million. This shows good cash management.
Worry ifCash drops below $150 million. This raises worries about financial health.
Why it matters: Approval would end ongoing lawsuits. It would also improve corporate governance, a key goal for management.
Supportive ifThe court approves the settlement. This leads to changes in governance.
Worry ifThe court rejects the settlement. This extends lawsuits and creates more uncertainty.
Why it matters: High liquidity helps Redwire invest and manage cash flow well.
Supportive ifTotal liquidity reported at or above $600 million at the end of Q3.
Worry ifLiquidity is below $500 million. This suggests possible cash flow problems.
Why it matters: A strong Book-to-Bill ratio shows good demand. It supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifBook-to-Bill ratio is above 1.5. This shows strong order intake.
Worry ifBook-to-Bill ratio is below 1.3. This signals possible demand weakness.