Redwire Corp. (RDW)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$6.19-19.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RDW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 27.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 74.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RDW — director transition
Dated 2026-07-14
Class III director and member of the Audit Committee — Gregory L. Heston: Mr. Gregory L. Heston was appointed to fill a vacancy on the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Gross margin rose to a record 27.8% in Q2, from 26.6% in Q1. A drop would weaken evidence of better results from each sale.
Watch forQ3 gross margin is at least 27.8%, above the 26.6% reported in Q1.
Also watch forQ3 gross margin falls below 26.6%, the Q1 2026 level.
Why it matters: Redwire reported $214.0 million in first-half revenue. Q3 results will show how much remains to reach its 2026 target.
Watch forQ3 revenue plus reported first-half revenue puts Redwire on pace for at least $450 million in 2026. Management keeps its $450M–$500M forecast.
Also watch forManagement cuts its 2026 revenue forecast below $450 million. Or reported results put the full-year target out of reach.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA improved from -$9.2 million in Q1 to -$3.2 million in Q2. Another gain would show progress toward covering costs.
Watch forQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is better than -$3.2 million, the Q2 result.
Also watch forQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is -$9.2 million or worse, matching or falling below the Q1 result.
Why it matters: A ratio above 1.0 means new orders exceed sales over the period. Redwire reported 1.42 in Q2 and a $542.1 million backlog.
Watch forQ3 book-to-bill is above 1.0 and reported backlog stays at or above $542.1 million.
Also watch forQ3 book-to-bill falls below 1.0 and reported backlog falls below $542.1 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$318 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,012 loss on $10,000 · 10.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,610 loss on $10,000 · 76.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.