Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Rekor Systems Inc (REKR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.32-10.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for REKR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin near 63% | The company targets gross margins near 63% as guided for 2025-Q3. | Broken | gross margin falls below 60% | Gross margin: 56.16% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~63%. The stored target says 2025-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 202656.160164 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder. Its multi-year view is in a watch state, with management showing progress on costs and recurring revenue but profitability still unproven.
The valuation model describes REKR as cheap versus peers, but confidence in that signal is low. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not show that the valuation alone captures the business risks.
Near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated, and the signal recently shifted from mixed to cautious. In Q2, recurring revenue grew 14% year over year and total revenue grew 2%; operating income was positive, but Adjusted EBITDA remained negative, short of management’s second-half 2026 profitability goal. Cost cuts are real, but further savings and broader platform adoption remain unproven.
The multi-year thesis hinges on recurring revenue and platform adoption growing enough to support sustained profitability after the cost reductions. A guidance cut or continued earnings misses would weaken that case; progress toward Adjusted EBITDA profitability would support it. Rate cuts or stabilization among large technology peers could help the sector backdrop, while recent litigation and a notice related to continued listing requirements add uncertainty.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, REKR’s business case rests on converting early recurring revenue and cost progress into durable profitability, with elevated execution and event risks. The evidence is mixed, and the profitability goal remains unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management is focused on fixing losses and addressing Nasdaq listing compliance. |
| Broken |
| failure to meet Nasdaq minimum bid price leading to delisting |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce net losses from recent levels | A primary condition in Rekor Systems Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Net loss less negative than -$9 million quarterly. | Improving | net loss worsens beyond -$9 million quarterly | Net income: $-551,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net loss less negative than -$9 million quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 2026-551,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Quarterly revenue at or above $14 million | Rekor Systems aims to improve financial health by growing revenue above $14 million quarterly. | Broken | quarterly revenue falls below $14 million | Revenue: $12.662M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $14 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 202612,662,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.04 → $-0.03 · observed estimates
$0.06B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.04 | $60,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.03 | $59,569,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.