Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Remitly (RELY)
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$21.55-20.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.07 → 1.07 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RELY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Leadership stability and confidence | A supporting condition in Remitly's published investment case. The stated target is No major leadership departures or insider selling in 2026. | Under Pressure | Key executives resign or sell large shares in 2026 | 1 exec departure + 2 insider sales vs 0 allowed CPO departure confirmed in June 2026; CFO and director sold shares in May/June 2026. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-growth financial technology business with strong recent performance and improving profitability. The long-term thesis is intact, but risk is elevated and recent company momentum has weakened.
RELY is valued at a 28% premium to peers, which points to an expensive valuation. The expectations gap is modest, but confidence in that estimate is low; the evidence labels the pricing as justified and fragility as low.
Near term, revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA are tracking management’s goals, while recent quarterly results show stronger profitability. The latest net income included a large tax benefit, so it is not a clean measure of operating progress. Risk remains elevated given erratic earnings surprises, weaker recent company momentum, and a negative capital-allocation event.
The next guidance update is a key test: a cut could weaken the case, while continued delivery on revenue and profitability goals would support it. The near-term sector backdrop also matters, including interest-rate conditions and whether sector peers keep reporting strong results.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on sustained growth and better operating profitability, balanced against an expensive valuation and elevated execution and sector risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company keeps positive GAAP net income. |
| Intact |
| Net income falls below $40 million in any quarter of 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Adjusted EBITDA was $120.8 million, compared to $61.2 million, up 97%.” “• Year over year growth in net income, and Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $441 million to $443 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Maintain positive GAAP net income in 2026 | The company keeps positive GAAP net income. | Intact | GAAP net income turns negative for any quarter in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 20-21% revenue growth in 2026 | A primary condition in Remitly's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.96B total revenue in 2026. | Intact | Annual revenue growth falls below 15% in 2026 | Revenue: $509.839M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.96B total revenue in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026509,839,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Revenue totaled $509.8 million, compared to $419.5 million, up 22%.” “2026 Financial Outlook For fiscal year 2026, Remitly currently expects: • Total revenue in the range of $1.989 billion to $1.991 billion, representing a growth rate of 22% year over year.” Revenue was $495.156 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.65 → $1.07 · observed estimates
$2.35B → $2.37B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.65 | $2,349,660,150 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.65 | $2,349,660,150 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.65 | $2,349,660,150 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.65 | $2,349,660,150 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.65 | $2,349,660,150 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.65 | $2,349,660,150 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.65 | $2,349,660,150 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.91 | $2,352,720,143 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.91 | $2,352,720,143 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.65 | $2,349,660,150 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.91 | $2,352,720,143 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.65 | $2,349,660,150 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.65 | $2,349,660,150 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.65 | $2,351,182,370 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.71 | $2,368,681,400 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.97 | $2,364,946,135 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.71 | $2,372,603,620 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.97 | $2,364,946,135 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.97 | $2,364,946,135 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.97 | $2,364,946,135 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.97 | $2,364,946,135 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.97 | $2,364,946,135 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.97 | $2,364,946,135 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.97 | $2,364,946,135 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.97 | $2,364,946,135 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.07 | $2,372,959,386 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.07 | $2,372,959,386 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.07 | $2,372,959,386 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.07 | $2,372,959,386 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.07 | $2,372,959,386 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.07 | $2,372,959,386 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.07 | $2,372,817,986 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.07 | $2,373,902,786 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.07 | $2,373,902,786 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.07 | $2,373,902,786 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.07 | $2,373,902,786 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.07 | $2,373,902,786 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.07 | $2,373,902,786 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.07 | $2,373,902,786 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.07 | $2,373,902,786 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.07 | $2,373,132,271 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.07 | $2,373,132,271 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.07 | $2,373,132,271 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.07 | $2,373,132,271 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.07 | $2,373,128,006 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.07 | $2,373,128,006 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.07 | $2,373,128,006 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.07 | $2,373,130,903 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.07 | $2,373,130,903 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.07 | $2,373,130,903 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.07 | $2,373,130,903 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.07 | $2,373,144,403 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.07 | $2,373,144,403 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.07 | $2,373,148,483 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.07 | $2,373,148,483 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.07 | $2,373,148,483 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.07 | $2,373,148,483 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.07 | $2,373,148,483 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.07 | $2,373,148,483 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.07 | $2,373,148,483 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.07 | $2,373,148,483 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.07 | $2,373,148,483 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.07 | $2,373,148,483 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.07 | $2,373,148,483 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.07 | $2,373,148,483 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.07 | $2,373,148,483 | 4 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.