Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Replimune Group, Inc. (REPL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.69+0.19%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for REPL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Resubmit BLA for RP1 with FDA | Replimune aims to resubmit its cancer drug RP1 to the FDA soon. | Recovered | BLA resubmission delayed beyond 2026-Q3 | FDA approval secured vs mid-2026 target FDA approval for advanced melanoma treatment confirmed in August 2026 news. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making biotechnology company with a developing commercial launch and ongoing clinical programs. The thesis is in a watch state: recent performance improved, but confidence in the overall evidence is low.
The evidence does not provide a valuation comparison or specific market expectations, so whether the shares are cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear. No fragility signals were flagged, but the expectations gap cannot be assessed from the available valuation evidence.
Near term, momentum has improved after an October earnings beat, following an in-line report in August and a miss in June. The latest reported net loss narrowed year over year, while TUDRIQEV launch activity is evident; however, the supplied evidence does not quantify product revenue or clinical progress. Guidance cuts and weaker employment data are risks, while continued strength from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether TUDRIQEV adoption develops into measurable commercial results and whether management advances the confirmatory and RP2 trials. A guidance cut or further weakening in employment would weigh on the setup, while strong results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers would be a favorable sector signal.
For the 1-to-3-year view, REPL shows signs of recovery, but its loss-making position and unquantified commercial and clinical progress keep the thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is cutting losses, improving cash burn from negative $77M to negative $65.9M. |
| Broken |
| Operating loss worsens beyond negative $71.9M by 2026-Q3 |
Operating income: $-56.281M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss improves to no worse than negative $71.9M by 2026-Q3. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 2026-56,281,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Advance strategic partnership for RP1 | A new strategic partnership supports RP1's development. | Improving | No partnership progress or deal termination by 2026-Q4 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.15 → $-1.36 · observed estimates
$0.07B → $0.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.15 | $69,912,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.15 | $69,912,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.15 | $69,912,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.15 | $69,912,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.15 | $69,912,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.15 | $69,912,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.15 | $69,912,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.15 | $69,912,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.70 | $121,010,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.15 | $69,912,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.66 | $137,611,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.27 | $103,116,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.19 | $107,996,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.19 | $107,996,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.19 | $107,996,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.61 | $142,491,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.19 | $107,996,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.37 | $215,519,130 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.37 | $215,519,130 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.61 | $142,491,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.61 | $142,491,480 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.61 | $142,491,480 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.61 | $142,491,480 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.61 | $142,491,480 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.61 | $142,491,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.08 | $165,717,486 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.01 | $175,431,771 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.01 | $175,431,771 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.01 | $175,431,771 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.01 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.01 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.06 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.06 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.06 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.06 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.06 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.06 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.06 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.06 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.06 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.06 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.06 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.06 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.06 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.05 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.05 | $175,431,771 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.05 | $159,488,112 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.91 | $178,741,688 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.61 | $169,080,512 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.36 | $177,080,512 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.36 | $177,080,512 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.36 | $177,080,512 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.36 | $177,080,512 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.36 | $177,080,512 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.36 | $177,080,512 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.