Replimune Group, Inc. (REPL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.04-1.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · REPL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
REPL — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-14
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly stated by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Less loss means better money health and cash flow.
Supportive ifLosses drop to below negative $65M in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLosses stay above negative $71.9M in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The launch of TUDRIQEV is crucial for Replimune's growth. It signals their entry into the commercial market.
Supportive ifTUDRIQEV is launched and available in the U.S. market by October 2026.
Worry ifThe launch is delayed for more than 60 days. Management has not communicated clearly.
Why it matters: The committee's vote on RP1's efficacy will influence FDA's final decision. A positive outcome could support approval.
Supportive ifThe advisory committee votes that RP1 works well. This helps its chances for approval.
Worry ifThe advisory committee votes that RP1 does not work well. This raises concerns about its approval.
Why it matters: Managing cash is important for keeping operations running. It also helps fund future trials after TUDRIQEV's launch.
Worry ifManagement says cash reserves can fund operations for more than 12 months after launch.
Less concerning ifManagement says cash reserves will not last more than 12 months after launch.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$316 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $876 loss on $10,000 · 8.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,416 loss on $10,000 · 84.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Watching cash burn after TUDRIQEV's launch shows financial health. It also shows how well the company operates.
Worry ifCash burn drops a lot after TUDRIQEV launches.
Less concerning ifCash burn remains high or increases following the TUDRIQEV launch.
Why it matters: Updates on the IGNYTE-3 trial will show how TUDRIQEV helps patients and its market chance.
Watch forThe IGNYTE-3 trial has positive interim results. These results show better overall survival rates.
Also watch forThe latest results are not good. They suggest TUDRIQEV may not help patients.
Why it matters: Enrollment in the IGNYTE-3 trial is important. It helps confirm how well TUDRIQEV works. This affects future approvals.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the IGNYTE-3 trial grows a lot in the next quarter.
Worry ifEnrollment numbers stagnate or decline in the IGNYTE-3 trial.
Why it matters: Details on the partnership can signal growth potential for RP1. Clarity can boost stock value.
Watch forThey shared financial details and goals from the partnership.
Also watch forNo updates or details shared about the partnership by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Continued improvement in losses shows better financial health. It can attract more investors.
Supportive ifOperating losses drop below negative $70M in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating losses stay above negative $70M in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The BLA resubmission is key for RP1's future. Success can improve investor confidence.
Supportive ifA press release confirming the BLA for RP1 is officially resubmitted to the FDA.
Worry ifNo announcement of the BLA resubmission by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Monitoring cash burn is important for assessing Replimune's financial health. A high burn rate could signal funding issues.
Worry ifCash burn rate goes down a lot, showing better cost control.
Less concerning ifCash burn rate goes up, raising worries about financial health.
Why it matters: Transitioning RP2 to Phase 2/3 is key for Replimune's pipeline and future growth.
Supportive ifRP2 successfully transitions to Phase 2/3 as planned in Q1 2027.
Worry ifRP2 fails to transition to Phase 2/3 or faces significant delays.
Why it matters: Updates on cash runway will show financial health. This affects funding for clinical trials.
Worry ifManagement says cash runway lasts until Q1 2027. This allows operations to continue.
Less concerning ifManagement says cash runway will end before Q1 2027. This raises worries about funding.
Why it matters: FDA feedback on the RP1 BLA will help plan future regulatory steps and timelines.
Watch forFDA gives positive feedback or a timeline for the RP1 BLA resubmission.
Also watch forFDA issues concerns or delays regarding the RP1 BLA resubmission.
Why it matters: We need proof of clinical benefit for TUDRIQEV to keep its approval. This affects future revenue.
Watch forThe IGNYTE-3 trial had positive results. This shows TUDRIQEV helps patients.
Also watch forNegative results from the IGNYTE-3 trial, leading to potential loss of approval.
Why it matters: Good sales of TUDRIQEV could increase earnings. This would help Replimune's product plans.
Supportive ifManagement shares news of strong partnerships or deals for TUDRIQEV.
Worry ifNo progress on sales shows possible problems entering the market.