Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX)
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$42.88-8.63%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.14 → 10.00 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for REPX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditure between $119M and $140M in 2025 | A supporting condition in Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 119-140 USD_MILLIONS. | Broken | Capex exceeds $140M or falls below $119M in 2025 | Capital expenditures: $68.287M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 119-140 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 202668,287,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
REPX is a growth-focused energy company with a thesis tied to rising oil production and the sector backdrop. The thesis is intact, but its recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed as capital-allocation and deal-related events add uncertainty.
Valuation evidence is mixed: REPX is described as cheap versus peers, while another measure shows a 56% premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, and the pricing signal is described as justified, with low fragility; the evidence points to sector turbulence, not a broader combination of expensive valuation and weak fundamentals.
Near term, production growth has been on track, and management raised full-year guidance; operating cash flow also improved in the latest quarter. Capital spending rose and free cash flow fell, so cash generation remains mixed, while erratic and declining earnings surprises and a possible guidance cut are risks to watch.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on management delivering the production plan while keeping capital spending disciplined and improving free cash flow. Sector support is another swing factor: continued strength from energy bellwethers could sustain the tailwind, while weaker results or lower guidance could remove it.
For the 1-to-3-year view, REPX combines strong operating momentum and an intact production-growth thesis with elevated risk from capital needs, earnings variability, and sector sensitivity. The thesis depends on execution and continued sector support. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS growth to at least $6.24 in FY 2026 and $8.18 in FY 2027 |
| A primary condition in Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6.24 USD_PER_SHARE FY 2026 and >=8.18 USD_PER_SHARE FY 2027. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $6.24 in FY 2026 or below $8.18 in FY 2027 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income growth to at least $43.67M in 2026-Q1 | Riley Exploration is improving operational efficiency, raising operating income from $26.16M to $43.67M in one quarter. | Intact | Operating income falls below $26M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $106.725M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=43.67 USD_MILLIONS operating income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026106,725,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth driven by strategic acquisitions to at least $113.88M in 2026-Q1 | Strategic acquisitions helped grow revenue from $97.28M to $113.88M in the same period. | Intact | Revenue falls below $97M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $201.203M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=113.88 USD_MILLIONS revenue. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026201,203,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.42 → $10.00 · observed estimates
$0.65B → $0.71B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.42 | $646,160,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.22 | $622,350,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.22 | $622,350,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.22 | $622,350,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.22 | $622,350,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.22 | $622,350,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.22 | $622,350,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.22 | $638,080,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.22 | $638,080,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.22 | $622,350,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.22 | $638,080,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.22 | $638,080,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.22 | $622,350,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.22 | $622,350,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.22 | $622,350,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.22 | $622,350,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.22 | $622,350,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.28 | $638,080,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.28 | $638,080,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.28 | $638,080,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.28 | $638,080,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.28 | $638,080,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.28 | $638,080,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.28 | $638,080,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.28 | $638,080,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.14 | $650,440,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.14 | $650,440,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.14 | $650,440,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.14 | $650,440,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.14 | $650,440,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.14 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.48 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.48 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.48 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.48 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.48 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.48 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.48 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.48 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.48 | $648,840,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.48 | $672,640,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.48 | $672,640,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.48 | $672,640,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.62 | $684,800,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.62 | $684,800,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.62 | $684,800,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.62 | $684,800,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.62 | $684,800,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.62 | $684,800,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.62 | $684,800,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.62 | $684,800,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.62 | $684,800,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.62 | $684,800,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.62 | $684,800,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.00 | $706,160,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.00 | $706,160,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.