Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX)
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$42.88-8.63%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · REPX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 38.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 61.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
REPX — credit agreement
Dated 2026-11-04
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 29, 2026, Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (the "Company"), as parent guarantor, and its wholly owned subsidiary, Riley Exploration – Permian, LLC (the "Borrower"), entered into an Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the "A&R Credit Agreement") with Truist Bank, as administrative agent and issuing bank, and the lenders party thereto. The A&R Credit Agreement amends and restates in its entirety the Company's Credit Agreement dated as of…
Why it matters: Management set Q3 oil output guidance at 25.1 to 26.1 MBbls/d. Meeting the low end would support its 2026 growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 oil output is at least 25.1 MBbls/d, within or above guidance.
Worry ifQ3 oil output is below 25.1 MBbls/d.
Why it matters: The company used $130 million of credit-facility borrowing to repay its 10.50% notes. The next results can show the new debt cost and total debt.
Watch forThe next filing reports lower interest expense than Q2's $7 million, with total debt no higher than $273 million.
Also watch forThe next filing reports interest expense of $7 million or more, or total debt above $273 million.
Why it matters: The new pipeline aims to ease gas limits that cut Q2 output by about 1.9 MBbls/d. On-time service could help lift production.
Supportive ifThe Targa pipeline starts service by December 31, 2026. Management reports more capacity to move gas.
Worry ifThe pipeline is not in service by December 31, 2026, or gas limits still cause well shut-ins.
Why it matters: Total free cash flow fell from $24 million in Q1 to $6 million in Q2 as spending rose. A rise would show more cash left after investment.
Supportive ifA later quarter reports total free cash flow above $6 million.
Worry ifA later quarter reports total free cash flow at or below $6 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $451 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,296 loss on $10,000 · 23.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.