Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX)
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$41.93-0.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · REPX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 24.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
REPX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026 , Company announced its financial condition and results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026. In connection with this announcement, the Company issued an earnings press release (the “Earnings Release”). A copy of this document is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is available on the Company’s website at www.rileypermian.com. In accordance with General Instructions B.2. of Form 8-K, the information de…
Why it matters: New acquisitions may raise revenue and help management's plans.
Supportive ifA new acquisition that adds a lot of production capacity is a good sign.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced by the end of 2026 is a bad sign.
Why it matters: More cash flow shows that the company is improving how it operates.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations in Q2 2026 exceeds $47 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations in Q2 2026 is below $47 million.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows management's discipline in capital spending. This is important for maintaining free cash flow.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 spending is reported between $53 - $65 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 spending is reported over $65 million.
Why it matters: This growth shows that management believes in their production plan. It also supports the 2026 growth outlook.
Supportive ifQ3 oil production exceeds 26.1 MBbls/d, which is a 20% increase from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 oil production is 26.1 MBbls/d or lower, indicating weaker growth.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$179 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $431 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,296 loss on $10,000 · 23.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finishing the pipeline will help reduce midstream limits. This will boost production and cash flow.
Supportive ifThe Targa pipeline will start working as planned in Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe Targa pipeline is delayed beyond Q4 2026, prolonging midstream constraints.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows better cash generation and financial health. This is key for funding growth.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 free cash flow reported above $0.
Worry ifQ3 2026 free cash flow reported negative.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is improving. They will also show if it is making money from acquisitions.
Watch forEarnings are better than expected. This shows the company is working more efficiently and growing revenue.
Also watch forEarnings are below expectations. This shows the company is facing problems in operations and growth.
Why it matters: Higher operating costs could harm cash flow and profits.
Worry ifLease operating expenses exceed the upper guidance of $9.00 per Boe.
Less concerning ifLease operating expenses stay within or below the guidance range.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending may show aggressive growth plans. This could affect cash flow.
Worry ifTotal capital spending was above $52 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal capital spending was below $46 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how well a company is doing. They also show its place in the market.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 2% and positive guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 2% and negative guidance.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending could indicate aggressive growth plans but may pressure free cash flow.
Watch forIf Q3 spending is over $52 million, it shows a strong focus on growth.
Also watch forIf Q3 spending is $52 million or less, it shows more cautious spending.
Why it matters: Improved revenue growth signals a shift from the mature phase of the energy sector.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 2%, indicating a return to growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or below 2%, confirming slow growth.
Why it matters: New acquisitions could boost revenue and show management's growth strategy is effective. This is key for future performance.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new acquisition that adds over $20M in annual revenue.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This means there may be problems generating cash flow, even with more production.
Worry ifTotal Free Cash Flow exceeds $10 million in Q3, showing improved cash generation.
Less concerning ifTotal Free Cash Flow stays below $10 million in Q3, indicating cash flow challenges.
Why it matters: New acquisitions could help increase revenue. This supports management's plans and is key for future success.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one strategic acquisition by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo acquisitions announced by the end of Q3 2026.