REX American Resources Corporation (REX)
NYSEEnergyChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$41.46-0.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
REX keeps growing earnings with net income per share rising from $0.26 to $0.56 in one year. The company invests $220-$230 million in expanding ethanol production and carbon capture. Profitability is strong with 20 consecutive profitable quarters. Capital spending supports future growth and testing of new facilities is starting.
Earnings estimates have fallen recently from $3.88 to $3.00 per share. Revenue growth is expected near zero. Uncertainty in the ethanol market could hurt profits. The stock trades above levels justified by current earnings and growth forecasts.
The stock price is about 23% above our valuation level and reflects almost no revenue growth. Our view sees risk in earnings and growth that the current price does not fully account for.
Breaks if: CAPEX budget falls below $220 million or exceeds $230 million in FY26
Continue to budget total capital expenditures of $220-$230 million for expansion and carbon capture projects.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable growth opportunity in the energy sector, particularly focused on ethanol and carbon capture projects. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and ongoing management priorities.
The market seems to price in some fragility due to weak execution quality and the challenges of a turbulent sector. REX is currently valued as cheap compared to its peers, with a moderate expectations gap.
Management is on track with key projects, including the expansion of ethanol production and advancements in carbon capture. Although there is a low probability of missing guidance, the company has a history of deep misses, which adds some risk.
The thesis hinges on the ability of REX to maintain guidance in the upcoming calls and the performance of sector leaders like XOM and CVX. Additionally, inflation trends could impact the overall energy sector positively.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Management fell by 10.6 points (from 71.9 to 61.3).
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company focuses on earnings improvement. It also plans to expand ethanol production. However, mixed fiscal results raised concerns about earnings improvement. An analyst stated it is too early for an upgrade on REX. This uncertainty affects the positive outlook for the company.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management consistently budgets $220-$230 million CAPEX for expansion and carbon capture projects. Actual capital expenditures reached $191.2 million by 2026-Q3, indicating progress toward the budget with delivering trajectory.
“Capital expenditures to-date related to the One Earth Energy carbon capture and expansion totaled $191.2 million.”
“The Company continues to budget a total of $220-$230 million for these projects.”
“The Company continues to budget a total of $220-$230 million for these projects, subject to refinement.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.71 next quarter
Sustain and improve earnings per share and net income through operational efficiency and tax credit benefits.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Diluted EPS rose from $0.22 in 2025-Q2 to $1.06 in 2026-Q3, and net income attributable to shareholders increased from $7.1 million to $34.9 million over the same period. Management's focus on earnings improvement is delivering strong financial results.
“REX reported record second quarter earnings per share of $1.06, up from $0.22 in prior year quarter.”
“REX achieved $0.56 net income per share in fiscal first quarter 2026, best first quarter in company history.”
“Management emphasized strong operational and financial momentum with record earnings per share.”
Breaks if: capital expenditures for expansion fall below $176.3 million by Q2 2026
Finish construction and begin testing and commissioning of the One Earth Energy ethanol production expansion, aiming for full operation during fiscal 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures for the One Earth Energy expansion and carbon capture project increased from $166 million in 2026-Q1 to $191.2 million in 2026-Q3. Management consistently reports nearing completion and expects full operation during fiscal 2026, indicating delivering progress.
“REX is on-track to complete the construction phase of the expansion of ethanol production at the One Earth facility.”
“REX is nearing completion of the expansion of ethanol production at the One Earth facility, expecting testing and commissioning to begin upon completion.”
“REX is nearing completion of the expansion of ethanol production at the One Earth facility, with full operation expected during fiscal 2026.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, REX's performance will depend on its execution of key projects and the broader energy market dynamics. Not investment advice.