REX American Resources Corporation (REX)
NYSEEnergyChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$41.46-0.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · REX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
REX — officer change
Dated 2026-07-01
The company updated the employment agreements for its senior executives, increasing their bonus and salary limits.
Why it matters: A higher net income per share shows better earnings and strong operations.
Supportive ifQ2 net income per share exceeds $0.56, continuing the trend from Q1.
Worry ifIf Q2 net income per share is below $0.56, it shows earnings weakness.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company's focus on improving profits is working.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows a year-over-year increase in net income.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a year-over-year decline in net income.
Why it matters: Staying within budget shows REX's commitment to managing costs while expanding. This is vital for future growth.
Supportive ifSpending is reported to be within the $220-$230 million range.
Worry ifSpending is over the $230 million budget.
Why it matters: If the energy sector's revenue growth picks up, it could benefit REX. This would signal a stronger market.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up again, moving closer to its highs. This is a good sign.
Worry ifSector revenue growth continues to slow, suggesting ongoing headwinds for REX.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $313 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,990 loss on $10,000 · 19.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sector revenue growth trends can impact REX's performance and outlook.
Watch forEnergy sector revenue growth is over 6% compared to last year.
Also watch forEnergy sector revenue growth is under 6% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Getting permits is key for REX's carbon capture project. It is important for future growth.
Supportive ifThe U.S. EPA grants the necessary permits for the carbon capture project.
Worry ifPermitting delays are slowing down the carbon capture project. This is hurting progress.
Why it matters: Staying within budget shows management's discipline and supports growth plans.
Supportive ifCapital spending is said to be in the $220-$230 million range for expansion.
Worry ifIf capital spending goes over $230 million, it may mean budget problems.
Why it matters: A higher EPS means earnings are improving and operations are strong.
Supportive ifQ2 net income per share for REX common shareholders is over $0.56.
Worry ifQ2 net income per share is below $0.56. This shows possible earnings weakness.
Why it matters: Staying on budget shows good management. It also helps support growth plans.
Supportive ifTotal capital spending for the One Earth projects stays within the $220-$230 million range.
Worry ifCapital spending goes over the $230 million budget. This shows possible financial issues.
Why it matters: Ethanol prices affect REX's income and profit.
Worry ifEthanol prices are rising a lot. This will lead to higher revenue and profit margins.
Less concerning ifEthanol prices are falling more. This is hurting revenue and profit margins.
Why it matters: Finishing this expansion is key for increasing ethanol production and revenue. It supports REX's growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe One Earth Energy facility will be running by the end of fiscal 2026.
Worry ifThe expansion is delayed past fiscal 2026. This will affect production plans.
Why it matters: Approval is important for REX's carbon capture project. It can help with sustainability and profits.
Supportive ifThe U.S. EPA grants final permits for the Class VI injection wells.
Worry ifThe EPA denies the permits or delays the approval process a lot.
Why it matters: Steady profit growth shows strong performance and good management.
Supportive ifQ3 net income per share exceeds $1.06, continuing the trend of profit growth.
Worry ifQ3 net income per share drops below $1.06. This shows possible operational problems.